Friday, May 08, 2015

Threat Assessment

Saudi Arabia shows every intention of using the ten-year waiting period for Iran to get nukes that President Obama plans in order to get their own nuclear capability.

From the "Well, Duh" files:

While Saudi Arabia has long advocated a nuclear-free Middle East, its leaders are doubtful that the completed accord on limiting Tehran’s nuclear program will stop Iran from becoming a threshold nuclear-weapons power when proposed restrictions on is number of centrifuges and uranium stockpiles expire in 10 years. They also aren’t willing to bet that the regime in Tehran will somehow become more moderate and responsible by then, a hope entertained by many in the West. ...

“Our leaders will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon while we don’t,” added Ibrahim al-Marie, a retired Saudi colonel and a security analyst in Riyadh. “If Iran declares a nuclear weapon, we can’t afford to wait 30 years more for our own—we should be able to declare ours within a week.”

Egypt and Turkey will feel pressure to go nuclear, too, the article notes.

Nobody in the region who will have to cope with a nuclear Iran should President Obama's risky gamble based on his apparent conviction that he--and he alone in his historical moment--can tame Iran wants to trust the president because his gambit will fail to work.

Is it any wonder that Saudi Arabia has doubts about our reliability?

Also note that Israel's possession of nuclear weapons for nearly half a century hasn't prompted serious efforts by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Turkey to get nukes.