Sunday, June 16, 2013

Not a Map of Government Victory

Rebel presence in Syria:


This isn't the same as control, of course, although in some areas the government has abandoned their own presence. And given Syrian heavy armor, Assad could send troops to most places if their group is large enough.

The white parts of the map don't reflect government control. The northeast is largely Kurdish controlled if I understand correctly. While not rebel-held it is certainly not government-held.

And large swathes of territory in the southeast are thinly populated for the most part. I imagine foreign special forces could go through there at will.

I must say I'm puzzled about that white spot north of Lake Assad adjacent to Turkey. There is no pro-Assad ethnic group nearby. I guess the towns of Jarabulus and Tall al Ahmar must be important for some reason.

Wikipedia says that area is Kurdish and Arab. Last summer rebels captured border crossing posts near there. The latter are apparently ancient ruins. So forget that. If rebels aren't present or controlling the area, I doubt the government is in charge.

Another article I read gave Assad credit for controlling 40% of Syria.

I know, during the Iraq War you could have had maps like this. The difference was that the minority was in revolt in Iraq and not representing the government as it is in Syria; and Iraq's government had not only the numbers but powerful American forces on the ground and in the air.