I'm feeling better about our departure timetable from Afghanistan. Afghan forces are fighting well:
The Afghan security forces (over 300,000 soldiers and police) are now responsible for security in 312 districts (77 percent of the total and 80 percent of the population). So far, the Afghans have been able to keep the peace in these districts, at least the Afghan definition of peace. But the remaining 91 districts are some of the most troubled (by drug gangs and Taliban) and the most likely to have major armed opposition. Army leaders are confident their troops can handle the challenge. Afghan officers see last year as the big test. In 2012 Afghan army deaths went from 550 in 2011 to 1,200. But this year losses are closer to 2011 levels because in most districts the gangs, unruly militias and Taliban were defeated and are now causing less trouble. Of course in some districts the army officers were bribed to enter into an illegal truce. But that means the bad guys have to behave. Any dead bodies or outcry from aggrieved civilians will kill the truce, at least for a while. The Taliban now know how good the Afghan soldiers are and can see a dim future for their fighters, even with the drug gang money.
Afghan losses aren't newly high without American troops in the lead. At some point, we had to turn over the job to the Afghans themselves. That's COIN 101. This should be okay.
As long as we can support the Afghan trigger pullers with air power, logistics, intelligence, and medical care, the Taliban shouldn't stand a chance of staging a come back as we pull out the bulk of our troops.
We will retain a presence to support the Afghans, won't we? I mean, I assumed we'd retain a presence in Iraq after 2011 to defend what we won there. Silly me.
