Saturday, June 04, 2011

Getting Closer to a Ground War

I suppose attack helicopters are as close as you can get to a ground war without being on the ground with troops. The British and French are now using their attack helicopters against Libyan targets:

The Apaches hit two targets near the coastal city of Brega, according to a statement from the Ministry of Defense in London. It said they took off from HMS Ocean, stationed off the Libyan coast and returned safely after completing their mission in the early morning hours.

This is in the center on the main front dividing loyalist western Libya from eastern rebel Libya.

The French were also in action:

The French helicopters took off from the helicopter transport ship Tonnerre in the Mediterranean, said Col. Thierry Burkhard. He said they struck 15 military vehicles and 5 military command buildings, without identifying the sites or their location.

Earlier reports that put French-speaking special forces on the ground at Misrata would indicate that is where the French were in action (at the time, most reports had them being British, so I assumed the British would handle that region while the French would hit the coastal region around Burayqah (Brega)). Wherever it was, the French took ground fire without suffering damage. Taking ground fire probably means the French had to push inland to launch the strikes (hitting coastal targets could be accomplished while still at sea our of range of small arms and light anti-aircraft guns). So I'll guess it was in the Misrata region.

Using helicopters also eases the strains on precision weapons shortages for British and French aircraft, assuming that early problems wasn't corrected, if the helicopters take over hitting targets that otherwise would be hit by aircraft.

The article also reports setbacks to the loyalists in fighting south and southwest of Tripoli against rebels.

The loyalists are clearly rocked back on their heels with recent events. The question remains whether this is enough to crack the loyalists and lead to defections and desertions that open the gates to a rebel advance on Tripoli to oust the government. Or will NATO resolve crack first?

NATO is winning. The loyalists have been unwilling to risk NATO air power on the coast to attack into the rebel-held east; and have suffered air attacks when operating near Misrata. Even operations away from easy observation by NATO in the southern and south-western mountain areas have failed, now.

Yet NATO hasn't actually destroyed very much of Libya's vast arsenal. If NATO will falters and the air war ends, the loyalists could quickly regenerate offensive capacity to pound those rebel positions near Tripoli and launch an attack on Ajdabiyah and points northeast.

It also remains unclear to me that Russia and China are sincere in siding with NATO given their general interest in not letting the precedent of humanitarian armed intervention stand and their interest in selling arms to a friendly Libya. Could they still be trying to engineer a ceasefire to save Khaddafi? Or at least the Khaddafi regime even if Khaddafi formally steps down to provide a symbol of "victory" for NATO?

UPDATE: The Russians sure seem to think this is getting closer to a ground war:

"We know that France and Britain intend to use military helicopters. We have given our view of NATO's actions," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency.

"We consider that what is going on is either consciously or unconsciously sliding towards a land operation. That would be very deplorable," he added.

Which also raises the question of whether Russia has really turned against Khaddafi.