China's first aircraft carrier could begin sea trials as early as this summer and its deployment would significantly change the perception of the balance of power in the region, the chief of U.S. forces in the Pacific said Tuesday.
Perception is right. One small carrier without a skilled crew or pilots (or the rest of our system that allows a carrier strike group to be lethal--even if the big ship in the center is vulnerable) does not change the balance of power. It would just be a target for our fleet in the near term.
And right now, the perception of growing Chinese power that this carrier represents is causing neighbors to arm up at sea. The perception among the neighbors is that we still hold the edge and that their own efforts to block China won't be wasted. Hopefully, Taiwanese worries over the carrier prompt them to increase their defense budget and get serious about defending themselves.
We have to make sure that the current perception that is prompting a reaction against China doesn't become a perception of future Chinese dominance in the western Pacific over our power, leading China's neighbors to accommodate China (believing we won't be able to fight China in the western Pacific) rather than resist China (believing we might help them stop China).
