Friday, March 11, 2011

Balancing Act

Unrest in Bahrain focused on the lack of democracy for the Shia majority poses a special problem for us:

Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell told reporters traveling with Gates that the defense secretary's aim is to reassure Bahrain's rulers that the U.S. remains committed to a partnership that includes Bahrain's hosting of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet.

Gates also wants to encourage a national dialogue on political reform, Morrell said.

The unrest here poses a special challenge for the Obama administration, in part because of the strategic importance of this island nation as host to the 5th Fleet and in part because of the prospect of increased Iranian influence here as a regional Shiite power.

We need the base there. We can't afford to let Iran exploit the unrest by backing a Shia overthrow of the Sunni minority government. And I doubt if the Saudis would stand by and let the Sunni government fall, anyway. So what to do? Push for enough reforms to quiet protests that also don't scare the Saudis and keep Bahrain's status quo as much as possible.

Nobody said foreign policy is simple.