Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Just Words?

A year ago, I wrote that I assumed that the South Koreans were approaching the point where they could, in case of war, advance into North Korea to sweep away the artillery that looms over Seoul.

Strategypage confirms what I thought made sense given the swing in the balance of power:


American and South Korean military planners believe that, if North Korea were to declare war (as they have been threatening to do for over half a century), the main threat would be the bombardment of Seoul, the capital, and largest city, of South Korea. Some North Korean artillery can reach Seoul, as can nearly all the rockets and missiles. Damage would be in the tens of billions of dollars, and the casualties in the tens of thousands (or more, if chemical weapons are used.) But because of the shortages, and lack of training, the North Korean troops would be unable to advance far into South Korea. And the South Koreans have plans for using their better trained and equipped forces to try and halt the bombardment, and advance into North Korea as well. For many years, the advance into North Korea was thought to be a difficult option, mainly because of the large number of special operations troops the North Koreans had. But the great meltdown up north has done serious damage to this capability as well.


This is a game changer. North Korea is used to threatening to bring down a "sea of fire" on Seoul, with the only question being how quickly the South would get so nervous about their capital that they shovel goodies north.

North Korea now has to worry about whether their bluster is taken too seriously by South Korea, which might get nervous enough to take action to protect their capital.