Is it possible that the Iraqi election experience had something to do with Iranian expectations of an election? If critics of the war can for just a moment move beyond their own deeply held opinions about the invasion of Iraq -- that this was a war of choice fought on false premises to lower gas prices or whatever -- and examine the effect of that war on the region as a whole, they might see a connection to the current turmoil in Iran. After all, one of the intellectual arguments in favor of overthrowing Saddam Hussein was, in the words of Dick Cheney, to place "a democracy in the heart of the Middle East, a nation that will be a positive force in influencing the world around it in the future.”
I think a case can be made that Barack Obama's election as president has also raised expectations of the democratic process in countries around the world. It is certainly possible that we are seeing an Obama effect in Iran as young people there look to replicate the excitement and enthusiasm of young people here during last year's election.
It could be. I hoped for that before the Iraq War:
So could Iraq spark dominos from Iran to Syria and from Egypt to Saudi Arabia? I hope so. It certainly isn't out of the question given the history of the "discredited" domino theory. With Islamofascism crumbling in Iran, perhaps the region is ripe for the democratic counter-offensive. Shoot, just batting .300 would be pretty good. The ironic thing is, though tipping the domino of Iraq could start a chain reaction for rule of law and democracy in the Islamic world; the Iranian mullahs hoped tipping Iraq the other way, during the Iran Iraq War in the 1980s (the real First Gulf War) would be the first domino to turn the Islamic world into Iranian-inspired and led fanatics. The Iraqis may have held the line long enough to blunt the murderous, Islam-distorting philosophy that today motivates al Qaeda and prepared the region for the day very soon when we reach out our finger and tip the domino the other way. No wonder al Qaeda hates Saddam almost as much as the West.
Let me note that I wasn't conflating Sunni al Qaeda with Iran's Shia mullacracy, but merely commenting on both as a general wave of Islamo-fascism sweeping the region then.
And I don't rule out that President Obama's election could be raising the hopes of Iranian protesters (making our president's stiff-arming of their protests all the more disappointing). That raised hope is surely the result mostly of the unfair portrayal of President Bush, but it could surely exist.
President Obama has little time left to demonstrate that hope and change can apply to Iranians if this display of courage is to be more than a sad foot note in the long history of Iran's dictatorship.
Yet always remember that the credit for even the effort to achieve some degree of freedom in Iran ultimately must go to George the Liberator.
We shall see if gale force winds develop.
