Saturday, June 13, 2009

A Fraud Too Far?

I've wondered if we might actually get lucky after the Iranian vote and see the Iranian people overthrow the mullahs, relieving us of the need to attack the mullah regime before they go nuclear.

Sure, the Iranian people like the idea of nukes for national prestige, but when the idea of nukes runs into the cost of getting them, I bet a post-mullah government that doesn't want them to nuke Israel or blackmail opponents won't be as eager to press forward in the face of economic sanctions and disapproval.

Well, following what appears to be blatant vote count fraud, Iranians are rather upset.

And the Iranian government seems to have cut off cell phone service in Tehran, perhaps fearing its use to organize protests or worse.

I first hoped in 2003 that June elections would signal something great, but have always been disappointed. Are the Iranian people so desperate that they might finally take matters into their own hands? I don't think we can be that lucky, but who knows?

UPDATE: Perhaps a little presidential outreach to the Iranian people would be in order. Hope and change, and all that. With close to 200,000 American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, just presidential words urging regime restraint and stating our support for democracy and rule of law might have a good impact.

UPDATE: Heck, maybe such a speech could improve Iran's opinion of the United States, which has declined since the Bush years:

Few Iranians have favorable opinions of the United States, a view that has changed little since the election of an American president who has expressed a willingness to talk to Tehran, a rare poll of Iranian citizens showed Monday.

Even so, the survey shows Iranians continue to strongly want their country to adopt democratic institutions like free elections and a free press, the poll showed. There also remains a widespread willingness to stage unconditional negotiations with the U.S. following nearly three decades of diplomatic estrangement between the two countries.

Just 29 percent of Iranians said they have favorable views of the United States in the latest poll, which was conducted last month. In a similar survey in February 2008 — nearly a year before Barack Obama became president — 34 percent had positive opinions about the U.S.


Perhaps our president reaching an open hand out to the Iranian leader who is clearly quite despised by the people of Iran didn't do our image any good the last several months.

UPDATE: Hey, this is good:

The U.S. on Saturday refused to accept hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's claim of a landslide re-election victory in Iran and said it was looking into allegations of election fraud.


Just letting the Iranian people know that we know about the fraud has to be encouraging to the protesters in the streets.

UPDATE: More from Michael Totten. I have no idea if this is just another wave that the regime rides out or whether it signals a more serious threat to the regime.

But how is the Obama administration prepared to react to a murderous rampage by security forces or a real revolution? Something is happening, and an outstretched hand isn't going to cut it as our official position on Iran's mullah regime.