Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Sticker Shock

I have strong doubts that the Obama administration can sustain a war effort in Afghanistan without its natural power base turning against the war.

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff doesn't see us putting more than 60,000 troops into Afghanistan:


"I don't see us growing a force well beyond the 20,000 to 30,000 for Afghanistan—American soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines—beyond that 30,000 or so," Mullen told about 800 soldiers and specialists gathered for a town hall meeting.

He added: "It's got to be met with a commensurate surge from the other agencies, particularly the State Department, in order for us to start generating success in 2009."

Mullen's comments mark the first time he has capped the number of soldiers to be sent to Afghanistan amid some predictions that the U.S. will be there for at least a decade.

An estimated 33,000 U.S. troops currently are in Afghanistan, and the Pentagon is set to announce at least three more brigades—about 16,000 soldiers—to be deployed in coming months. In all, the Pentagon said it expects to have about 60,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan.

By comparison, about 146,000 U.S. troops have been sent to Iraq.


This is good. I've long been worried about committing more than 10% of our combat brigades into Afghanistan at the end of an uncertain supply line. I think we'll have 6-7 brigades/regiments there after the force additions all reach the theater. We have about 42 active Army brigades (going to 48 in short order), 9 (or is it still 8?) Marine regiments, and 31 or so reserve brigades/regiments. So more than 10% just counting active forces but less with reserves included.

Should worst come to worst, our military would survive their loss (As effective combat units if we have to Dunkirk them out of there by land and air, abandoning equipment--not as killed or captured, I should add. I'm not that pessimistic.).

Still, remember that we could see this number of troops suffer 500 KIA per year. And the monetary cost could exceed the cost of 150,000 Americans deployed in Iraq because of the difficulty of moving goods and people into and out of that landlocked country with poor infrastructure.

I sure hope all those people who've spent nearly 6 years whining about "ignoring" the "good war" while we won the "bad war" in Iraq will support their favorite war with this price tag.

They wanted it. They're getting it.