Saturday, February 07, 2009

Lowering the Floor

I've mentioned that our success in Iraq can't be measured by whether we reduce civilian deaths to zero. Iraq, as any country does, has a "normal" level of violence. Strategypage addresses that normal level:

There were 191 (including 51 Iraqi policemen and soldiers) violent deaths in Iraq last month, the lowest since U.S. troops entered in 2003. That's a murder rate of about 8.2 per 100,000 people a year. The murder rate in the Western hemisphere (about 8 per 100,000 people a year) is much higher than in Europe, where it is about 3-4. Middle Eastern nations have rates of between 5-10. The United States is often regarded, at least by Europeans, as a wild, gun happy place. But the national murder rate is about six per 100,000. There are other parts of the world that are more violent. Iraq had a murder rate ten times higher during 2005-7. Under Saddam, the rate was 10-20 a year.


Even with Iran still shipping in weapons and al Qaeda in Iraq still hanging on in the Mosul area, January deaths of Iraqis fell below the rate of Saddam's Iraq.

We may have given Iraq a normal rate of violence that will be the envy of the region--and large parts of the world.