More evidence from the Gaza Winter War:
There is a commonly held view that taking military action against terrorists has the counterproductive effect of strengthening their popular support. Recent polling data suggest that Israel's recent action in Gaza had precisely the opposite effect. It turns out that military defeat (Israeli forces killed hundreds of Hamas fighters and damaged its infrastructure, while taking few losses of their own) actually lowered Hamas' support among Palestinians. A new poll by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion found that 51% of Palestinians and 56% of those living in the Gaza Strip now believe that Hamas is leading Gaza in the "wrong" direction. Only 28% of Gaza Palestinians say they support Hamas, down from 52% in a survey conducted in November, before the recent conflict.
The contrast is from the 2006 Hezbollah War:
It's worth noting the contrast between these poll results and data showing that the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah led to increased Lebanese popular support for the latter. I conjecture that the difference is due largely to the fact that Israel was perceived as the loser of that war, or at least as failing to win.
Keep this in mind when people tell you that attacking Iran to stop their nuclear weapons work will only rally the people of Iran to the mullahs.
