Beijing's communist leadership sees eventual reunification with Taiwan to mend the rival Chinas' 60-year-old split as "vital to regime legitimacy," the US official stressed.
"Preparations for a possible Taiwan conflict continue to drive the modernization goals of the People's Liberation Army and the Chinese defense-industrial complex," Blair said.
"At the same time, we judge that China over the past several years has begun a substantially new phase in its military development by beginning to articulate roles and missions for the PLA that go well beyond China's immediate territorial interests."
Blair cited China's development of a blue-water navy that can range far afield from East Asia, highlighting its decision in December to start anti-piracy patrols in the lawless waters off Somalia.
The goals of absorbing Taiwan and developing a blue water navy to defend sea lines of communications are two sides of the same coin. China can't really become a blue water naval power with Taiwan friendly to America acting as a cork in the bottle. Taiwan would remain a thorn in the side of Chinese power projection if China tried to become a blue water naval power without absorbing Taiwan.
The Philippines and Japan also play a similar role, but Taiwan also has the geography to serve as a naval base to interfere with China's power projection and a base for counter-attacks into China itself with air power. Thus Taiwan poses a unique threat to China's ambitions.
Blair also cites the importance of gaining Taiwan as a source of government legitimacy. True enough. But if you think China wants to be a world power, understand that China cannot for long allow Taiwan to maintain its current status if it intends to become a blue water naval power.
