This International Herald Tribune article notes that China's increasingly exploited rural poor are a ticking time bomb:
The recent police killing in China's Guangdong Province of as many as 20 villagers who were protesting the government's seizure of land for a power plant is symptomatic of an emerging pattern of rural unrest that challenges the very legitimacy of the Chinese state and the development path on which it has embarked.
The unrest in China seems to be growing, too.
And with the latest publicized confrontation taking place in Guandong Province, there is reason for the new emperors in Peking to sleep poorly at night. The IHT article notes the events of 1949 as the historical example that the Chinese communists might worry about.
I say go back another generation for the right example. Eighty years ago, the Chinese warlords fell from primacy from a drive called the Northern Expedition that began in Guandong Province:
The Northern Expedition began from the KMT's power base in Guangdong province. In 1926 the May 30th Movement announced the chains for strike and protest against western imperialism and its warlord agents in China.
Money, well-trained troops, and better arms allowed the KMT to drive north, defeating enemies and encouraging defections, until the KMT held--at least nominally--all of China.
Certainly, Taiwan's wealth, Western-supplied or locally produced weapons based on Taiwan's ties to the West, and a military superior man-for-man to the Chinese forces, are not in any position to conquer a unified mainland China. But given China's history, might not the Chinese communists worry that social disorder within China might fragment China and make the mainland vulnerable to a new northern expedition based out of Taiwan? Even if Taiwan cannot pull something like this off, might not the Chinese Communist Party worry that the KMT really still runs Taiwan despite a few splittists in the news and would attempt to reverse the results of 1949?
China appears to be preparing to deal with Taiwan in the very near future. If the Chinese worry that Taiwan might provide the spark for a new northern expedition, any signs of serious unrest in China that look like the beginnings of sustained and widespread unrest capable of threatening the central government might encourage Peking to assault Taiwan whether they believe they are ready or not. We need to watch China for signs its economy is stumbling which might be a trigger for such unrest, which in turn might trigger an attack on Taiwan.
Under these circumstances, this would seem to the Peking leadership an entirely defensive move within their own claimed territory. Does our CIA have any idea what the red lines are for the Chinese rulers in regard to acceptable levels of unrest?
