China appears to be preparing to deal with Taiwan in the very near future. If the Chinese worry that Taiwan might provide the spark for a new northern expedition, any signs of serious unrest in China that look like the beginnings of sustained and widespread unrest capable of threatening the central government might encourage Peking to assault Taiwan whether they believe they are ready or not. We need to watch China for signs its economy is stumbling which might be a trigger for such unrest, which in turn might trigger an attack on Taiwan.
This post addresses the basis of China's economic progress. James Waterton thinks that China's economy is basically running on a crubmling foundation and that there is a very real question of whether the Chinese can correct the problems before collapse. He sees either a military revolt to take over from the communist party or a breakdown into regional states. Either has historical examples as justification. I, too, doubt that China's growth is as real as statistics portray.
Waterton does not, however, think that invading Taiwan is a likely Chinese response to a faltering economy:
Some mention Taiwan as a wildcard that could be used as a distraction by the Central government. I think this unlikely. If the economy collapses, a war with Taiwan is not likely to distract anyone from their sudden poverty. Militarily, it seems unrealistic, too. The military will be stretched to breaking point in an attempt to reign in the chaos on the Mainland, so a massive invasion or attack on Taiwan looks unfeasible.
I hope he is right. Only losing to China in a war over Taiwan would be worse than going to war over Taiwan.
Waterton's dismissal of the threat of war to distract from economic crisis is true, however, only if the Chinese do not act when the warning signs appear or if the collapse is so sudden that there is no time to react aggressively. This dismissal of the threat of war over Taiwan also fails to consider whether Peking would consider Taiwan a threat during a period of economic crisis rather than as just a means to stoke nationalism to bolster regime popularity.
A lot depends on whether unrest reaches a critical point and whether anybody recognizes that a critical point has been reached.
In this light, this article is interesting not for the individual who bombed a courthouse in anger but about his means of attack:
Bomb attacks motivated by grudges or business disputes are common in China, where most gun ownership is banned but explosives are widely available for mining and construction.
Explosives are widely available in China? We've experienced in Iraq the results of having explosives all over the country when some are willing to use them against the government.
Is a fuse burning in China? Would we know if it is? Would Peking know?
