Friday, April 03, 2020

Russia Picked a Bad Week to Quit Sniffing Petroleum Products

Russia relies on oil exports for income and political influence. And now the Wuhan Flu is hitting Russia--probably far worse than Putin admits.

So ordering an oil price war now really was exceptionally bad timing on Putin's part:

The timing could not have been worse for Russia to provoke a spat with Saudi Arabia over oil production quotas in early March. Moscow’s decision to withdraw from the OPEC+ agreement restricting oil production in order to maintain higher oil prices triggered a harsh reaction by Riyadh that sent oil prices spiraling down to below $25 per barrel in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic (Oilprice.com, March 24). The price of Russian Urals oil dipped even lower, under $19 on March 18, which will deprive the Russian budget of some $3 billion a month (Vedomosti, March 19).

The Russian economy is likely to suffer the most devastating consequences of the oil price war—just as it bore the heaviest impact of low global oil prices five years ago. This time around, however, the injury is self-inflicted, as an angry Saudi Arabia not only decided to ramp up production but also moved to grab Russia’s oil market share around the world (see EDM, March 19, 23).



I mean, rather than lauding Putin for playing a poor hand well, aren't the Russian people eventually going to notice that Putin is effing up royally?

Putin isn't brilliant. He is weakening Russia's economy, failing to arrest the decline of Russia's defense industries, alienating potential allies, and strengthening potential enemies all for the "glory" of Abhkazia, South Ossetia, Crimea, parts of the Donbas, and bases in Assad's Syria.

And he's not that impressive riding a horse bare-chested, truth be told.

Chimps with nukes.

What Western plot could be as effective at wrecking Russia than Putin himself? Seriously, why isn't there a conspiracy theory floating around Russia on that possibility?

Yeah, a public vote on Putin remaining in office for life at this time that isn't completely rigged by Putin probably isn't a good idea.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

UPDATE: Is Russia really willing to give up their gambit, whatever their motive is?