Is Russia prepared to expand their subliminal invasion of Ukraine?
Recent reports that Moscow is deploying Cossack groups along the Russian-Ukrainian border near the Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiy regions of Ukraine are extremely worrisome, as the Kremlin ostensibly used similar units in its initial invasion of southeastern Ukraine in 2014. Such revelations may presage a new Russian move against Ukraine and be intended as an attempt to muddy the waters about who is behind any aggression. But at the same time, they are the latest sign that the Kremlin wants to have groups with which it can maintain a certain plausible deniability when engaging in destabilizing or aggressive operations both internationally and within the Russian Federation.
As noted, they've been involved in the invasion since the beginning.
And the Russians are bringing the Cossacks--now augmented by units simply called "Cossack" because it sounds bad ass rather than being ethnic Cossacks--into the regular armed forces rather than treating them as paramilitary irregulars.
Strategypage discussed the revival of the Cossacks a couple years ago.
But it seems odd that Russia would risk something like this against a Ukraine far more prepared than it was in early 2014. Isn't Russia broke enough?
And wouldn't Ukrainian troops just slaughter any paramilitary Cossacks who cross the border? Would Russia support them with firepower and troops, greatly reducing the implausible deniability of another invasion of Ukraine?
And wouldn't an expansion of the war just give Ukraine an excuse to hit Sevastopol (missiles and sea mines would be my weapons of choice) and inflict damage on the only gain from Russia's 6-year-old stalemated war with Ukraine?
As the author notes, they might be intended to reinforce the Donbas front. Or the Cossacks may just be appearing as a force designed to cope with the inability to bring enough warm bodies into the ground forces.
