Friday, February 09, 2018

The Unrest Simmers as the Mullahs Keep the Lid On

Strategypage looks at Iran's regional actions and the growing unrest in Iran that is, if unchecked, on a vector that could bring Iran to the stage the shah faced before his fall.

After 1999 and 2009, the protests of a month ago (with continuing protests erupting) spread in geographic and social scope:

The 2017-18 protests continued the trend in that they were larger, more widespread (with outbreaks in over 400 locations) and, worst of all, including many of the religiously and socially conservative country folk who have long been the core support of the Islamic dictatorship. There were also numerous reports of IRGC personnel (usually quite junior ones) who were siding with the protestors.

The rise of "the deplorables" is a global factor, it seems.

Although Mauldin Economics--which does say that internal divisions will handicap Iran's attempts to pay for regional influence via violence and military power--says that the protests are over.

I've long hoped that a revolution will be the means of protecting America from a nuclear-armed Iran under the mullahs.

Even if a future more friendly Iran still wants to spend their money on nukes after overthrowing the mullahs (which I find doubtful), that kind of government's possession of nukes would worry me only a bit more than France's nuclear arsenal; but a rather less than Pakistan's nuclear arsenal worries me.

Will we be lucky enough in regard to Iran? Time is running out to be lucky on North Korea; although if Iran is no longer a potential customer for North Korean nukes, our North Korea problem is greatly simplified.