Sunday, February 04, 2018

It Takes Some Children to Sustain a Village

Americans are having more children. Which could smother the "China rising" trend in the cradle.


The new analysis of U.S. Census Data from Pew Research also found that those mothers are bearing more children. The U.S. had the lowest fertility rate in its history in 2006, with the average American woman bearing 1.86 kids. In 2016, that average was 2.07, an 11% rise. Those figures put the country on par with the early 90s, but nowhere close to the 70s.

As the article notes, this rise reverses a worrisome trend over the last decade. The fertility rate decline from financial crisis and recession turned out to be temporary, it seems. Although the reasons for the increase seem to make it different than the earlier similar rate. But the big picture is that babies are being born.

That stands in contrast to China which has recently ended the one-child policy to cope with their aging population that will eventually decline.

Indeed, I've noted that depending on the fertility rates and GDP growth (which seems to be leveling off), that China may have a window of opportunity closing in 2050 to pass America by to claim the top economy. And that by 2100, even if China does pass America by, America could reclaim the top spot and possibly even have more people than China (although that is a low probability at one end of the range of possibility).