Thursday, February 13, 2014

Red Line Versus Nine-Dash Line

Normally I'd salute a tougher stance against China's territorial ambitions in the western Pacific. But when we take a hard line and China doesn't find it credible, isn't war more rather than less likely?

Secretary of State Kerry will warn China away from taking territory at other's expense:

The United States fired a shot across China's bow a week ago by taking a tougher stance on maritime disputes in East Asia, a message Secretary of State John Kerry will amplify in Beijing this week.

The high tensions in Asia over Beijing's territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas will be near the top of Kerry's agenda when he meets senior Chinese officials on Friday. He will also discuss North Korea and climate change.

Kerry's top aide for East Asian and Pacific affairs, Assistant Secretary of State Danny Russel, drew a harder U.S. line last week on a series of maritime disputes between China and its neighbors.

"It (Russel's testimony) certainly indicates a sharper tack in terms of the concerns we have and the steps we want China to take" on maritime disputes, said a senior State Department official. "Secretary Kerry will continue to press the Chinese to refrain from provocative actions and rhetoric and caution against the provocative nature of some of China's actions."

So does China believe we are serious? If not, the Chinese could ignore us and believe themselves safe from our reaction.

And having embarrassed ourselves by abandoning red lines in the past and disappointing allies, could we respond in kind and begin a series of escalations that end in a shooting match?

On the bright side, fights over tiny islands near China lack the immediate danger of a clash at the Fulda Gap in 1985, for example.