I don't understand why fear of jihadi rebels emerging on the victorious end of the Syria Revolution is paralyzing us from effectively helping the non-jihadi rebels defeat Assad.
Obviously, if Assad goes down, we'll have to win the next phase of the fight by helping the non-jihadis win the fight against the jihadis.
Remember, getting to that next phase means we achieved a victory in getting rid of Assad--a long-time foe who has the blood of lots of American troops on his hands (not to mention the blood of many more Iraqis and now, Syrians, of course).
But if supporting the rebels at the risk of temporarily elevating jihadis in Syria is too much of a risk, just what exactly do you think happens to the jihadis if Assad does win?
Syria’s neighbors (especially Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq) are now bracing themselves for the worst case; the defeat of the Syrian rebels. This would mean that the millions of pro-rebel refugees they are hosting would be joined by thousands of angry, defeated and often still armed rebels. The Islamic terrorists among the rebels are of greatest concern, because these men would be content to continue fighting in any country they land in. For the Islamic terrorist rebels from outside the region, it might be preferable to return to their home countries in the West and elsewhere and continue killing there. Most would continue operating against the Assad government, as would the more moderate rebel groups. The Syrian refugee camps would become bases for the expelled rebels and the world would have a new terrorism crises to deal with. In a familiar drill, Western donors would support the refugees, the host countries would complain about the economic and social disruption of the refugees and Syria and its allies (especially Iran and Russia) would complain about the rebels and Islamic terrorists living off the refugee camps and continuing to terrorize the Assad supporters in Syria.
Got it? If Assad wins, those foreign jihadis will scatter back to their homelands or across the borders into Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, where they will do what jihadis do--kill whoever is conveniently near them even if the object of their jihad is out of reach at the moment.
Refusing to help the Syrian rebels does not solve our jihadi problem.
The outcome of this war is still in doubt. It is not too late to effectively intervene on the side of the rebels. Assad does believe he can win this war--that's why he accepted the ridiculous WMD deal engineered by Lavrov and accepted by Kerry:
President Basher Assad of Syria is telling his supporters that he expects the rebels to be defeated within six months. For the last few months the rebels have been losing and with little prospect of Western air support or any other dramatic increase in military aid the rebels are unable to cope with the Iranian mercenaries who have given some offensive punch to the otherwise demoralized Assad forces and supporters. Russia has supplied weapons and ammo resupply as well as spare parts for Syrian warplanes and combat vehicles (all Russian made). Thus the Syrians are still able to fly nearly a hundred bombing, training and transport sorties a day. Syrian artillery continues to pound rebel fighters and civilians using fresh ammo supplies from Russia. Iranian cash keeps Assad supporters more comfortable than their rebel counterparts.
Assad has rolled the dice and told his people that the time he bought with Kerry-Lavrov will be enough to win. Just a little more sacrifice on top of the bloodletting that Assad's loyalists have already endured will win this once and for all. His people need to see light at the end of the bloody tunnel they are in. This is it.
We (or the Gulf Arabs) have to keep the rebels fighting longer than it takes to get rid of Assad's chemical stocks. Once the WMD are scrapped, we escape the worst effects of this totally self-inflicted wound.
Even if we fail to support the rebels, we have a role in preventing Assad and his Iranian and Russian buddies from stringing this process out longer than it should take.
Worse for Assad, if that hope of victory is snatched away and the fight has no end in sight, Assad's supporters with one foot out of the country just in case may decide that they'd rather avoid the worst case (their death and loss of wealth if they stay and lose) and minimize their losses by seeking a comfortable life in exile.
Yes, rebel morale could falter. But loyalist morale is already shaky. That's why Iran has funneled in thousands of Shia shock troops to spearhead Assad's offensives.
Indeed, as I'm mentioned, as long as the worst doesn't happen (Assad wins the war), we will gain an edge by removing the Assad threat of chemical warfare escalation if we open up an air campaign or open up arms spigots to the rebels--or if Turkey actually invades to set up safe zones on the border or even goes all the way to Damascus.
The war is not over or decided. What we do or don't do matters. And jihadis will be a problem regardless of what we do or don't do. Their presence in Syria is no excuse to do next to nothing.
Will we try to win or just try to avoid responsibility? The latter is a futile hope when our power means we are blamed for what we do or what we fail to do.
