Wednesday, November 13, 2013

The Slick Road

We should welcome China's efforts to avoid a potential energy naval blockade by seeking energy assets in the interior of Asia.

So this is bad news strategy-wise (tip to Instapundit)?

Although much less romantic [than calling it the "New Silk Road"], “Hydrocarbon Highway” more aptly describes Xi’s vision. In recent weeks, China has signed nearly $100 billion in energy contracts to increase Chinese access to the abundant petroleum resources of Central Asia. A major advantage of obtaining oil from Siberia and Central Asia is that it could travel to China overland—and thus beyond the reach of U.S. naval power. ...

An American naval blockade, most likely stemming from a conflict over Taiwan, is a nightmare scenario the Chinese regime clearly wishes to avoid.

If I may be so bold, this is good news for America and our allies.

China will never be able to escape the effects of a naval blockade unless you believe that lines of communication inland can completely erase the need for China to trade by sea.

And by creating significant land-based economic corridors, China creates the need to divide their military resources between being an aero-naval power and an aero-land power.

That alone could actually prevent a war between America and China, which is even better than making the odds of our winning such an air-sea conflict higher.

In the end, we'll be better able to block their sea trade; and with assets in the Central Command region, we'll be able to attack those land lines of communication, too.

Of course, if a land line of supply is simply meant to extend the time that China could endure our naval blockade as China invades and conquers Taiwan, that's another story.

Or do the Chinese believe that a successful and relatively fast Chinese conquest of Taiwan would lead America to shrug and end a harmful but not immediately devastating naval blockade of China to get on with business as usual?