Strategypage notes China's vulnerability to blockade by the US Navy:
China’s economy survives at the mercy of the United States Navy. For thousands of years, China has been what is known as a “continental power.” That is, it had everything it needed right at home and was not dependent on seaborne trade to survive (like Britain and Japan, which are classic examples of “Oceanic Powers.”) But now China is an Oceanic Power, with over half of its GDP coming from exports to foreign nations. Moreover, nearly all the oil China uses is imported via seagoing tankers. China is now more dependent on access to the sea than Japan, which gets about 20 percent of its GPD from exports, or the U.S., which gets about ten percent. Thus if China were to try and take Taiwan by force, the United States could cause economic collapse in China by blockading China’s ports.Perhaps stopping China from capturing Taiwan would be that easy. But China would have economic weapons to use against us, too. No more treasury bond purchases. We'd suffer as all the jobs associated with Chinese exports to the US ended. Yes, China would suffer more but what is the relative ability of America and China to endure suffering? And would the Chinese people think suffering is worth taking Taiwan more or less than Americans would think suffering is worth defending Taiwan? I think we know which country can use force to compel endurance, so I won't ask that question. So who would last longer? Beats me.
Again, I wouldn't want to trade places with China. As I've noted, as a continental power requiring major land power that must also embark on a naval buildup to defend their growing maritime interests, China will have quite the burden:
China will find themselves in the terrible position that the continental powers the Kaiser's Germany and Soviet Russia had in challenging a sea power--they won't have enough money to be supreme in both realms.
I think China could break up or collapse before they are a major threat to us. Heck, democracy might even come to Peking. But this doesn't mean that China can't win some battles in the meantime.
Keep China looking inland and to the sea and we can divide their defense buildup enough to make it costly but insufficient to win in either strategic direction.
