Saturday, June 04, 2005

Angels on Pin Heads

The UN says that equipment usable to make WMD and missiles has been vanishing from Iraq based on satellite imagery:

Perricos said analysts found, for example, that 53 of the 98 vessels that could be used for a wide range of chemical reactions had disappeared. "Due to its characteristics, this equipment can be used for the production of both commercial chemicals and chemical warfare agents," he said.

The report said 3,380 valves, 107 pumps, and more than 7.8 miles of pipes were known to have been located at the 39 chemical sites.

A third of the chemical items removed came from the Qaa Qaa industrial complex south of Baghdad which the report said "was among the sites possessing the highest number of dual-use production equipment," whose fate is now unknown." Significant quantities of missing material were also located at the Fallujah II and Fallujah III facilities north of the city, which was besieged last year.

Before the first Gulf War in 1991, those facilities played a major part in the production of precursors for Iraq's chemical warfare program.

The percentages of missing biological equipment from 12 sites were much smaller — no higher than 10 percent.

The report said 37 of 405 fermenters ranging in size from 2 gallons to 1,250 gallons had been removed. Those could be used to produce pharmaceuticals and vaccines as well as biological warfare agents such as anthrax.

The largest percentages of missing items were at the 58 missile facilities, which include some of the key production sites for both solid and liquid propellant missiles, the report said.For example, 289 of the 340 pieces of equipment to produce missiles — about 85 percent — had been removed,
it said.


At the Kadhimiyah and Al Samoud factory sites in suburban Baghdad, where the report said airframes and engines for liquid propellant missiles were manufactured and final assembly was carried out, "all equipment and missile components have been removed."



Let's assume that Iraq did not have chemical weapons in March 2003.

Those opposed to the Iraq War have always had the fascinating task of arguing that there is a vast difference between having WMD in immediate access and the ability to quickly produce them. I still think that all the intelligence agencies in the world were right and that Iraq had chemical weapons in the year prior to the war. Something happened to them in the long run up to the invasion. But this information from the UN clearly shows (again) that Saddam had every intention of reestablishing his chemical weapons and missile force plus move ahead again on biological and nuclear weapons. Given enough time, from a few months for chemical shells to years for the rest, Saddam or his boys would have been back to where they were in 1990--a thug regime with lots of money and all the weapons it needs to threaten the region and world with its demented drive for regional dominance.

I would, however, like to know what happened to that stuff. Did looters take it to sell? Did we remove it to keep it safe? Did Baathists squirrel it away for a future in which they run Iraq again? Did Iran or Syria snatch it? Did the Russians remove it to hide their fingerprints? Within Iraq, this stuff is hardly a threat to us, I should think, since the holders don't have the resources of a modern state to exploit this equipment now in any significant way. But on the surface, this seems like a big oversight on our part. Why wasn't it simply destroyed in place after the war?

The big picture, however, is that the Iraq War was a just war fought for good reasons and we are safer for it. And as a bonus, the Iraqi people have a better present and a bright future ahead of them once we stomp out the Islamists and Baathists still on a killing spree.