This article (via Real Clear Politics) is one of many that argues that China is a looming threat:
In a brilliant new book by the late Constantine Menges, Ph.D., titled China: The Gathering Threat, the former special assistant for national security affairs to President Reagan and national intelligence officer at the CIA soberly outlines the threat China already has become and persuasively argues how America can use its economic and moral weapons to stop the world's biggest nation without a shot being fired.
Menges writes that China has defined America as its ''main enemy'' and can now launch nuclear weapons at the United States that are capable of killing 100 million of us. China's effective espionage operation in the U.S. has managed to steal the designs of nearly all nuclear warheads and other military secrets, he says.
China has threatened to destroy entire American cities if the U.S. helps Taiwan defend itself against a military assault or invasion, Menges writes. China also buys weapons from Russia that are designed to sink U.S. aircraft carriers. It controls more than $200 billion in U.S. debt and sells more than 40 percent of its exports to America, using the profits to strengthen its economy and advanced weapons systems aimed at the U.S.
And consider that whatever the exact number for China's military expenditures (and the fact that they hide the true number should tell us something all by itself), we have been underestimating Chinese military growth for a decade. Among the weapons we failed to appreciate that are highlighted in the study (via Powerline):
•China's development of a new long-range cruise missile.
•The deployment of a new warship equipped with a stolen Chinese version of the U.S. Aegis battle management technology.
•Deployment of a new attack submarine known as the Yuan class that was missed by U.S. intelligence until photos of the submarine appeared on the Internet.
•Development of precision-guided munitions, including new air-to-ground missiles and new, more accurate warheads.
•China's development of surface-to-surface missiles for targeting U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups.
•The importation of advanced weaponry, including Russian submarines, warships and fighter-bombers.
According to officials familiar with the intelligence report, the word "surprise" is used more than a dozen times to describe U.S. failures to anticipate or discover Chinese arms development.
Many of the missed military developments will be contained in the Pentagon's annual report to Congress on the Chinese military, which was due out March 1 but delayed by interagency disputes over its contents.
Weapons all useful for a clash at sea to hold off the US Navy and Japanese fleet long enough to conquer Taiwan, in my opinion.
Of course, we are not blind. Secretary Rumsfeld has noted the threat and we are moving military assets and carrying out diplomatic moves to gain allies. I've already mentioned our growing Japan alliance. And our budding relationships with India will greatly help. China can build up their navy all they want to push their protected sea lines of communication hundreds of miles but if we or our allies can interrupt the flow of tankers between the Middle East and China's ports, we win. This development by India would make China very vulnerable indeed:
Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee opened the first phase of India's giant western naval base INS Kadamba in Karwar, Karnataka state, on May 31, saying it would protect the country's Arabian Sea maritime routes. Kadamba will become India's third operational naval base after Mumbai and Visakhapatnam. Also taking part in the commissioning were six frontline Indian naval ships, including frigates and destroyers. They were detached from the flotilla of 12 vessels that are presently taking part in routine exercises in the Arabian Sea.
The Kadamba base is being built in the southern state as part of India's ambitious RUP 350 billion (USD $8.13 billion) "Project Seabird," which will include the naval base plus an air force station, a naval armament depot, and missile silos when it is completed in the next five years. Mr. Mukherjee admitted that the project had to overcome many impediments since it was sanctioned by the government in 1985 (it was originally slated for completion in 1995).
And closer to China's doorstep, our relations with Vietnam which has been a strong landpower able to resist Chinese military strength are improving:
U.S. Assistant Defense Secretary Peter Rodman held talks with Vietnam's Defense Minister Pham Van Tra and his deputy Nguyen Huy Hieu on Tuesday at the start of the two-day visit, the defense ministry-run Quan Doi Nhan Dan daily said.
A front-page article in the newspaper quoted Tra as telling Rodman that he believed the visit "would contribute to enhancing friendship and mutual understanding between the two armies."
I would never trade strategic positions with China but that doesn't mean they aren't a threat. Even a victorious war would cost us. And unfortunately, with nukes in the mix the threat of nuclear war could again put us under a cloud.
Watch China very closely.
