Sunday, October 13, 2013

The Tide of War

Thank goodness President Obama responsibly ended the Iraq War.

Because otherwise, this might be disturbing:

Al-Qaida has come roaring back in Iraq since U.S. troops left in late 2011 and now looks stronger than it has in years. The terror group has shown it is capable of carrying out mass-casualty attacks several times a month, driving the death toll in Iraq to the highest level in half a decade. It sees each attack as a way to cultivate an atmosphere of chaos that weakens the Shiite-led government's authority.

Recent prison breaks have bolstered al-Qaida's ranks, while feelings of Sunni marginalization and the chaos caused by the civil war in neighboring Syria are fueling its comeback. ...

Al-Qaida does not have a monopoly on violence in Iraq, a country where most households have at least one assault rifle tucked away. Other Sunni militants, including the Army of the Men of the Naqshabandi Order, which has ties to members of Saddam Hussein's now-outlawed Baath party, also carry out attacks, as do Shiite militias that are remobilizing as the violence escalates.

But al-Qaida's indiscriminate waves of car bombs and suicide attacks, often in civilian areas, account for the bulk of the bloodshed.

The recent rate of killing (less than 1,000 per month) is still far less than at the peak of the violence in the latter half of 2006 and through August 2007 (when no month was below 1,000 and a few went into the 2K range and one topped 3,000) before the American surge offensive and Sunni Arab Awakening took hold, but it is at a level that risks reigniting sectarian warfare.

Our failure to keep troops in Iraq to help fight the defeated but still surviving terrorists is one cause. Why we made this mistake after using the defeated but surviving Northern Alliance in Afghanistan to defeat the Taliban in 2001 is beyond me.

(President Karzai, take note as you risk an American "zero option" of just leaving Afghanistan.)

Our failure to support rebels in Syria early when they could have toppled the Assad regime--or at least made the non-jihadi rebels the dominant force--has created space in Syria to leak back violence to Iraq by Sunni Arabs fired up by the Sunni uprising against Assad.

And our failure to deal with Iran has allowed the often Iranian-backed Shia militias to return to the field. Although funny enough, the appeal of going to Syria to fight for Assad has lessened that impact by quite a bit, it seems.

It may be inconvenient, but the real war against al Qaeda terrorists can again be waged in Iraq. We would be wise to wage it.

We are tired of war against jihadis. The jihadis are not tired of war. So we will find that this war is not tired of us.