Can Taiwan engineer a pro-democracy revolt in China?
After all, Taiwan, with its 23 million people, is a thriving, prosperous, liberal democracy in every sense of that word — the first Chinese democracy in history. Isn’t that what most mainland Chinese actually want, Ma and others ask?I've noted that Taiwan is losing the arms race with China; and that even if we remain more powerful than China, it will take us longer to pierce China's shield against our naval advances to help defend Taiwan--perhaps too long if China's power outstrips Taiwan's by too much.
This may seem like a quixotic endeavor, given that the mainland is a stern authoritarian state whose leaders don’t countenance any challenges to their rule. Still, the number of so-called “mass incidents,” already tens of thousands a year, is constantly rising. These are major protests over repression, pollution, corruption, home seizures, toxic food and so much more. At the same time, complaints on Sina Weibo, the Chinese version of Twitter, grow more voluminous and acerbic with every passing week.
Most Chinese simply aren’t happy with the status quo. Even rich people no longer trust the government.
Even if Taiwan gets nukes, would nukes prevent the Chinese from gaining just a bridgehead on Taiwan after a ceasefire? Would Taiwan risk nuclear war if China offered to halt their invasion but insisting on staying on the island? Would Taiwan be able to then withstand phase two invasion some years later and fire nukes even in the face of inevitable defeat?
So if conventional means of deterring and defeating China are becoming out of reach, isn't the only other defense option logically the only way to go no matter how unlikely it seems?
Or will a new strategy be to use Taiwan's soft power of being a democracy to undermine the stability of Peking's rule, in the hope that the communists will be overthrown and that the new government will not be interested in conquering Taiwan? Or perhaps this would lead China to break up into successor states, none of which will be interested in taking on Taiwan--or perhaps just be too weak individually to do the job.
I noted an earlier post's recommendation should the Chinese seize some outlying Taiwanese island as a demonstration of power. But it should be tried before China can make a lunge for Taiwan itself:
China is vulnerable to internal unrest and fissures. Once Peking shows it will wage war to upset the status quo over Taiwan by use of force, we need to push back and attempt to end the threat at the source--by attempting to roll back the Communist dictatorship that will without a doubt launch the Second Taiwan War when the time seems right to them. Call our policy "Two Chinas. One System." The one system being Taiwan's system of democracy and free markets.
This is no reason for Taiwan to cut back on their military power. Taiwan never knows how much time must pass for something to happen that will make China decide it doesn't want to take over Taiwan.
Pushing for a Han Spring may be the only lasting way to secure Taiwan no matter how unlikely it seems right now. And even if Taiwan's efforts have no impact on triggering a revolt, just being an example of Chinese people successfully governing themselves will be a deadly weapon against the communists in Peking.
