Stratfor has received multiple reports of U.S. and French military movements that we would like to highlight to our readers. These movements could have multiple explanations and might not be linked. But given the numerous ongoing crises specifically centered in North Africa and the Middle East, we consider these developments to be worth following.
There have been movements over the last month of various transport and gunship versions of our C-130s; marine F-18s seemingly separate from Afghanistan; French special forces are active in Mali; French navy patrol aircraft and commandos will reinforce those special forces; and US drones are working over Libya in preparation for strikes in Libya and Mali.
Of this, Stratfor notes:
All these deployments could be previously scheduled movements for training or part of ongoing operations. They also do not necessarily mean any one mission is imminent. The United States and France could simply be positioning military assets in a region that is rife with conflict and that may eventually require rapid military intervention or action.
As they say, some might be related to reports that US special forces are returning to Iraq. Or it might be general preparedness. Connecting dots is difficult.
But for Stratfor, it is worth it to bring up the dots under the circumstances. Indeed, I've been waiting for the French to move on northern Mali since the secessionists ejected the Mali army from the region. And I expected we could assist with transport and special forces.
Since the September 11, 2012 consulate attack, I've expected a more robust American response directed at al Qaeda in northern Mali.
My main question now is whether an American operation is coordinated with a French-led operation to reconquer northern Mali, is a parallel operation with such a reconquest mission, or is simply a separate mission of retaliation. A secondary question is then whether the French will assist us regardless of whether a reconquest mission is on the table.
Something is up. It might be related to Mali.
UPDATE: Or it could be Syria, I suppose. But I tend to think we'd need a lot more dots moving around for a Syria scenario, including conventional ground forces to secure chemical weapons sites, if needed.
Or it just might be general preparedness to respond to some enemy-generated crisis prior to our elections on the theory we could not respond.
