Saturday, July 30, 2011

New Dawn. Old Dusk

Iraq has not descended into civil war since we relinquished primary responsibility for security to the Iraqis. But security is down over the last year:

Frequent bombings, assassinations and a resurgence in violence by Shiite militias have made Iraq more dangerous now than it was just a year ago, a U.S. government watchdog concludes in a report released Saturday.

We are still needed in Iraq. Our presence provides guarantees that resorting to violence outside of the political process is not the means to resolve political disputes.

We know we are needed to keep Iraq moving forward. The Iraqi leaders know this. And the Sadrists know this, too, which is why they are the ones throwing obstacles in the way.

The Iraqis should ask us to stay. We should stay. And if the Sadrists continue their campaigns of violence, the Iraqis should lean on our presence to finally smash that bastard Sadr's forces once and for all.

Sadr has fought the government three times already in major campaigns, threatening to plunge Iraq into chaos and darkness. Until he is dead or wins, he'll keep trying to win it all (with his Iranian backers cheering all the way).

UPDATE: Well, this doubling of Iraqi purchases of F-16s is a good sign that the Iraqi government will agree to some US presence after we are gone:

"A delegation from the Iraqi Air Force along with advisers will travel to revive the contract to include a larger number than the contract had agreed before... we will make it 36 instead of 18," Maliki told reporters.

"We have to provide Iraq with airplanes to safeguard its sovereignty," he said.

Sure, civilians could do this, but having our Air Force there for safeguarding their sovereignty could be a powerful reason to keep us.

I don't think we'll have nearly as many US forces in Iraq as I want after this year. I just hope it will be enough.