What I Wrote Four Years Ago

On Instapundit not too long ago, Glenn Reynolds noted a challenge from the left side of the blogosphere to recall what bloggers wrote four years ago in March 2003 and admit error where wrong.

This is my entire March 2003 posting history from my old TDR site with summaries of the major points. Since each and every post was not a prediction where one could say whether I was right or wrong, the challenge doesn't make complete sense. In any case, this is what I wrote about four years ago:

"A Million Mogadishus" (Posted March 31, 2003) How can I say I'm wrong here? From the beginning, our Left has wanted our enemies to win. They are emboldened since November 2006, but their views are nothing new.

"Hurry Up!" (Posted March 31, 2003) I explained what I had gotten right and wrong to that point. But our speed was definitely something I expected and I was surely right about our press corps' ability to declare crisis even in victory.

"Insurrection" (Posted March 30, 2003) I remained confident of decisive victory over Saddam's regime. And I correctly guessed that the lack of a Shia insurrection was due to the uncertainty of the Shias about our intentions to make sure that Saddam's regime was destroyed. It did take until summer 2004 for the Shias to really side with us rather than just being happy we destroyed Saddam's regime.

"Pause" (Posted March 29, 2003) I was uncomfortable with our pause but confident of decisive victory. I was starting to believe that the second heavy division I assumed was in theater did not exist. And I remained perplexed that the Iraqis hadn't used poision gas on our troops. And I defended the value of heavy armor.

"Air Power" (Posted March 28, 2003) I noted the weakness of air defenses against our superb Air Force and opined that I hope enemy nations continue to waste their resources on air defenses that won't ever be a match for our air power.

"Take a Deep Breath" (Posted March 28, 2003) I argue that the cries of doom are just silly and that we will crush the Iraqi military. I also argue that winning the war will create an Iraq that fights on our side as an ally. We have that though I won't say I expected we'd still be fighting inside Iraq at this intensity four years later.

"Casualties" (Posted March 27, 2003) I still read every casualty report. As a supporter of the war who has not gone wobbly, I don't ever want to forget the price our military is paying to protect us.

"Third ID" (Posted March 27, 2003) I expressed my relief that 3rd ID had four maneuver brigades and my surprise that the Marines had advanced so quickly up the Tigris-Euphrates valley. A half-way competent military could have delayed our advance. Which is why I expected the main advance to take place west of the Euphrates.

"Destroy the Nest" (Posted March 27, 2003) I argued that the correct response to the Fedayeen action along our supply line was not to turn around and wipe them out, but to drive on Baghdad as the true objective.

"Week of War" (Posted March 26, 2003) I expressed my amazement that some were wondering if we were winning. And I expressed by confidence that Iraqi units moving to oppose us would be decimated by our air power. I also noted that the actual fighting was being done by Iraqi irregulars.

"War's Progress: What Don't We See?" (Posted March 25, 2003) I made my last real defense of the idea that we simply must have another heavy division and an armored cavalry regiment somewhere ready to unleash. It was our doctrine. And Marine advances out of Nasiriyah surprised me since the terrain in the Tigris and Euphrates valley is well suited to defenders. I didn't imagine that the Iraqis would be that inept.

"Closing the Ring" (Posted March 24, 2003) I noted that the Army was getting ready for the final assault on Baghdad, I hoped the Marines didn't need to drive north in the valley, and I assumed our air power was seriously blasting the Iraqi military unseen by our press.

"Cake Walk" (Posted March 24, 2003) Despite early panic in the press, I expressed confidence that we would rip apart the Iraqi military.

"Steady, Lads" (Posted March 23, 2003) I cautioned that a high-casualty event did not mean defeat.

"Prisoners" (Posted march 23, 2003) I noted that we lost some maintenance troops as prisoners in the rapid advance north. And I explained that we are not taking prisoners to avoid the burden of slowing down our advance by taking prisoners who we would have to protect and feed. I continued to look for a major effort out of Jordan. We did sweep out of Jordan to seize Anbar but it was not a stepping stone to assault Baghdad from the west and northwest as I hoped.

"Attacker" (Posted March 23, 2003) I tried to put the actions of a Moslem soldier in 101st AB who attacked his fellow soldiers in context and expressed hope that this action would not taint all American Moslems.

"Third ID" (Posted March 23, 2003) Here I note the rapid progress of Third Infantry Division west of the Euphrates and worry about supply lines for both the Army and Marine thrusts. I noted that the rapid advance was into a vacuum devoid of Iraq troops. I speculated we might move our Army supply line to run to Jordan and that the Marines might cut loose and drive north without securing their supply lines. In the end, the Marines dedicated a separate force to protect the supply lines while three regimental combat teams drove north. The Army used 3rd ID on point and used 101st AB and a brigade of the 82nd to secure their supply line north. Still, I was assuming a traditional Iraqi defense and hadn't figured out that the Iraqi defenses were directed by Saddam in a totally idiotic manner.

"The Easy Part is Over" (Posted March 21, 2003) I expected our advance to slow down after the first lunge to Nasiriyah. I also doubted that the division would press north up the Tigris and Euphrates valley and instead drive north to the west of the Euphrates. Further, I stated we did not need to capture Basra and just seal it off while we headed north to the objective of Baghdad. I also noted the Stalinist protests in San Francisco.

"War Continues" (Posted March 21, 2003) I predict that the Army will only feint at Nasiriyah and instead go west of Euphrates. Also, I state it looks like Marines will be freed up by British troops around Basra to head north. I also noted that rumors that Iraqis had anti-GPS jammers appeared to be wrong. I also noted that a northern front had yet to open.

"Iraqi Resistance" (Posted March 21, 2003) I explain that we've had little resistance because the first divisions of the Iraqi military we will encounter are at Basra and Naririyah.

"Voices in Their Heads" (Posted March 21, 2003) I mock a human shields group in Iraq. I must repeat this quote: In February, a State Department spokeswoman responded to a reporter's question about why they were in Iraq by saying, "You might as well ask me why moths fly into porch lights." Yep. Good times. Good times.

"EU Civil War" (Posted March 21, 2003) I note that the Germans, French, and Belgians agreed to draft a "common defense identity." With these three trying to speak for all, I wondered if this would fracture the EU to our advantage.

"Liberation Time" (Posted March 21, 2003) I note that San Francisco protesters seem far more upset over Iraq's liberation than Iraqis.

"Impressions of the War" (Posted March 21, 2003) I note that the decapitation air strikes that tried to get Saddam failed and that the ground war was on. I noted my general impressions of the Army heading west of Euphrates (and stated I thought 3rd ID would set the land-speed record in the Middle East by the speed of their advance), the seizure of western Iraq, the Brits and Marines heading for Basra, and the silence of the northern front which I expected to be opened by 173rd AB Brigade and elements of 10th Mountain Division. As it turns out, the northern front was just 173rd AB plus special forces and a small amount of heavy armor.

"In Their Name" (Posted March 21, 2003) Let me quote myself: It is clear, nonetheless, that we will see very happy Iraqis when Saddam is gone and very unhappy anti-war types when they see cheering Iraqis. Granted, in a couple years that gratitude could be anger if we screw up the post-war phase, but it will be hard for the protesters in the West to argue that they were right to prefer Saddam to liberation. I have to hand it to the anti-war left—they stand by their dictators to the bitter end. We did see happy Iraqis as we chased Saddam's regime enforcers out of the south. While I don't think we screwed up the post-war as much as we faced a far better armed and financed terror campaign, the end result has been some unhappiness (but not regrets overall). Sadly, I underestimated the ability of our Left to prefer Saddam--even after his death. And they deny that Iraqis ever cheered us as we chased out Saddam.

"Damn, He Is So Sophisticated" (Posted March 21, 2003) Chirac insists he will gum up our post-war occupation. Well, they certainly haven't helped.

"Protesters" (Posted March 20, 2003) I note the eagerness of war protesters to create that Vietnam War Experience. Still going on, I'd say.

"POWs" (Posted March 20, 2003) I wondered if the Iraqi statement that any prisoners of ours they capture would be treated as mercenaries and that international law would not apply to them would inspire any protests from the anti-war side. Four years later, the enemy uses children to conceal car bombs and uses poison gas, yet are still called "resistance." Human rights groups continue to focus their wrath on us for minor lapses while ignoring the enemy's war crimes.

"Cuba" (Posted March 20, 2003) I wondered if a crack down in Cuba indicated Castro was worried about being strung from a lamp post.

"Iran" (Posted March 20, 2003) I note that Iran declared neutrality in the war. That statement is clearly non-operative.

"North Korea" (Posted March 20, 2003) I note that South Korea put their military on alert just in case.

"Afghanistan" (Posted March 20, 2003) I wondered why our military would deny any connection between the start of OIF and some offensive operations in Afghanistan.

"Lunchtime in Lansing" (Posted March 20, 2003) I note inane protester chants and hope we never have to count up to 3,000 victims in a terror attack again.

"Nightfall in Iraq" (Posted March 20, 2003) I note the start of war and worry we won't be ruthless enough to really crush Iraqi resistance and prevent higher casualties in the long run.
"Oh…" (Posted March 20, 2003) I felt foolish for not seeing that we probably gave a bunch of Iraqi diplomats the choice of defecting or being sent home to Iraq on the eve of our invasion.

"It Has Begun" (Posted March 19, 2003) I briefly note the war has begun, wish our troops luck, and declare they go in my name with my thanks.

"Speicher" (Posted March 19, 2003) I retained hope we might retrieve a pilot lost in 1991 over Iraq. Alas, rumors of his survival to 2003 did not pan out.

"Invasion" (Posted March 19, 2003) I wrote that invasion was imminent and still thought that Iraq would mount a defense based on actual military strategy that I outlined in my Red Team analysis from July 2002. Saddam's strategy was just plain stupid.

"Jerks" (Posted March 18, 2003) I vented over those who claim we acted unilaterally by denying that any country's support was actually significant.

"War Near" (Posted March 18, 2003) I noted that war would start in 24 hours and confessed to errors about when I thought the war would start. I worried about how Saddam might have used the time we granted since the beginning of the year when I thought we would strike.

"Civilian Targets" (Posted March 18, 2003) I note with disgust the vows of anti-war groups here in America to attack civilian infrastructure to impede our war effort.

"Ultimatum" (Posted March 18, 2003) I note that 48-hour ultimatum to Saddam, sum up my basic justification for war to forestall a nuclear attack one day on our shores, and correctly speculate that Army National Guard battalions in Jordan would be used to garrison captured Iraqi airfields in western Iraq.

"Clearing the Decks" (Posted March 17, 2003) I note that UN observers are clearing out. I explain that we aren't invading with just three divisions and that we have the line-equivalent of seven divisions (inlcuding one British division). I explained my theory of a heavy western front (wrong) and state we will be outside Baghdad's suburbs in a week and that our casualties would be historically low. I did not know if we would grab Baghdad fast or if there would be a last stand there or in Tikrit. I also figured revenge attacks by Iraqis on Baathists would be ugly.

"Northern Front" (Posted March 15, 2003) I wondered if one of our new Stryker units would be rushed into operation to take part in a northern front.

"March 17" (Posted March 14, 2003) I argued we were going in very soon--on March 17. I worried that Saddam might have used his French-purchased time to rig surprises for us. I still wonder about that.

"Never Mind" (Posted March 14, 2003) I note the ability of politicians who oppose attacking Saddam's regime to have enthusiastically backed President Clinton's 1998 aerial campaign; and the ability of Hollywood types to oppose destroying Saddam after having supported President Clinton's campaign against Serbia over Kosovo.

"Prisoners" (Posted March 13, 2003) Fifteen years after the Iran-Iraq War ended, Iran and Iraq agreed to release their last POWs. I figure this means we have another decade before the Officially Concerned can open their yaps about Guantanamo Bay.

"Terror War and Iraq" (Posted March 12, 2003) I note that one target for our invasion of Iraq will be hitting al Qaeda who took refuge in Iraq after we destroyed the Taliban regime.

"The Carter Doctrine" (Posted March 12, 2003) I thank President Jimmy Carter for the Carter Doctrine. My utter contempt for that man has not eased in four years.

"They Will Believe What They Will Believe" (Posted March 12, 2003) I express how tired I am of Moslems droning on about how we are on a new Crusade.

"Yet Another Material Breach" (Posted March 11, 2003) I note that Iraq tried to shoot down one of our U-2 recon planes. I mention that Saddam has an arsenal of "bugs and chemicals" but I don't know why I mentioned bio weapons. While I worried that the small scale nature of biological warfare research meant that this unknown had wider parameters than a nuclear program, I think this is the only time I ever appeared to assume he had bio weapons. This is an error and I don't know why I asserted it at the time.

"Fair Fight?" (Posted March 11, 2003) I express my utter amazement about an anti-war type who argues the war is wrong because it will be too easy and too few American troops will die.

"Nuclear Nightmares" (Posted March 11, 2003) I express my basic rule that stopping the mad mullahs before they get their first bomb trumps stopping the mad Korean from getting his third.

"Our Arrogance" (Posted March 10, 2003) I note that our 1998 campaign against Iraq had fewer allies than we had in 2003 even though we had that lip-biting multilateral sensitivity going for us in 1998.

"Iraqi Nuclear Program" (Posted March 9, 2003) I noted that the IAEA's declaration that Iraq had no nuclear program was not credible based on past failures to detect nuclear programs. Right in principle but wrong in fact. Iraq did not have an active nuclear program in 2003.

"Western Front" (Posted March 9, 2003) I noted rumors of a big American effort out of Jordan which I expected to be much larger and noted that we were taking down border barriers in Kuwait.

"Worthless" (Posted March 9, 2003) I note that Carter sickens me. It was prompted by another bout of opposing the invasion.

"American Forces in Saudi Arabia" (Posted March 8, 2003) I report on American forces reported in Saudi Arabia and again speculate this may hint at a big effort in the west. I also feared Saddam would belatedly haul out some chemical weapons and we'd be under pressure to accept this as a full disclosure.

"War Versus Civil Liberties" (Posted March 8, 2003) I argue that our civil liberties depend on destroying our enemies on offense and that sitting on defense just means our civil liberties will erode a little more every time the enemy hits us at home.

"The French Better Not Join Us" (Posted March 7, 2003) I hope for regime change in Paris.

"Bingo" (Posted March 7, 2003) I note a report on a secret base in Saudi Arabia and opine that we will own western Iraq in the first 48 hours. I also wrongly expected heavy armor to be used out there.

"ARRGGGHHH" (Posted March 7, 2003) I complain about another delay and worry about the time we are giving Saddam to prepare.

"Flying Pigs" (Posted March 7, 2003) I mock some academic's plan for a "small war" to disarm Saddam of WMD. It was so stupid that it still amazes me.

"We Really Try" (Posted March 7, 2003) One cleric's call for all Iraqis to resist our invasion made me despair of keeping this from being a war between Islam and the West. An Islamic duty to defend Saddam was just sick.

"The President's News Conference" (Posted March 6, 2003) I remark on the false certainty of inaction versus the uncertainty of action.

"Jackboots on Their Necks" (Posted March 6, 2003) An early case of false oppression syndrome by the anti-war side. They still believe that President Bush is about to declare the Bushtatorship. Failing to nullify the November 2006 election results did not end this silly fantasy of persecution.

"Oh Yeah, Soon" (Posted March 6, 2003) I thought the war would start the next day. I assumed Saddam would use chemical weapons. I also broadly called the general course of the ground campaign but expected more force than we used in both the north and west.

"Surge" (Posted March 5, 2003) I note the increased air sortie rate and expect war at any moment.

"So Just Where Is Maureen Dowd's Imperial America?" (Posted March 5, 2003) Maureen Dowd said with disapproval we were going to try to impose democracy on Iraq. Wait a second. Isn't the current Left line that democracy was an after-thought of Operation Iraqi Freedom declared by President Bush only after we failed to find the WMD smoking gun?

"The Kevorkian Trio" (Posted March 5, 2003) Russia, France, and Germany vowed not to let a second UNSC resolution pass. I hoped we'd have a vote and invade regardless just to weaken the Security Council. UNSC still too strong for my taste.

"Stalin" (Posted March 5, 2003) Showing how elderly Russians pine for the days of Stalin, I predict that the anti-war side will still be pro-Saddam after liberation reveals the horrors of his regime.

"So What Can We Really Do About North Korea?" (Posted March 5, 2003) I wrote that we could not wage war to stop North Korea from going nuclear. We couldn't get South Korean, Japanese, or Congressional backing for such an undertaking. We could basically contain them by building up anti-missile defenses, getting 2nd ID off the firing line, building up air power in the region, and halting North Korean exports of plutonium by any means necessary. In time, we could hope for a North Korean collapse.

"Turkish Front" (Posted March 4, 2003) I expressed my opinion that we did not need a northern front that includes 4th Infantry Division advancing south and that we may have very well been bluffing on this score.

"Still, We Wait?" (Posted March 4, 2003) The title speaks for itself.

"Cops" (Posted March 3, 2003) I commented on the capture of Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and how he looked like a drunken crook complete with a wife-beater undeshirt like you'd see on the show "Cops." And today, the Left wants to know if he was mistreated in our custody.

"Very Soon" (Posted March 3, 2003) I expected the invasion to start on the new moon and mocked human shields who were upset that the Iraqi government wanted to station them at military installations instead of zoos and teddy bear factories. I hoped that the Left would be embarassed by what they supported once Saddam was overthrown and they could see first hand what Saddam had done to his people.

"Disaster! Catastrophe!" (Posted March 2, 2003) I report on the Turkish decision to deny landing rights for our 4th ID. I say overlflight rights for our aircraft are more important and that we don't need a heavy northern front--that a couple light infantry and a parachute brigade would do just fine.

"3-172" (Posted March 1, 2003) I note that the news that our only true mountain unit, a battalion of the National Guard, is attached to 173rd AB brigade indicates that my guess that this unit would be part of the northern front is accurate.

"Northern Iraq" (Posted March 1, 2003) I comment on airfields in the Kurdish regions being prepped for our use. I also note that 101st AB will not be part of the first wave but will be a follow-up force, reserve, and occupation force. I still assumed another heavy division that didn't exist was there so the 101st did indeed take part in the invasion behind the 3rd ID advance.

"North Korean Threats" (Posted March 1, 2003) I worry about North Korea and discuss the complexities of various actions. I also wonder if the North Korean army is brittle after years of starvation and isolation.

So there you go. My blog posts from four years ago. Neither a prophet or a fool, I believe. I just offered my honest take on what I could see (or thought I could see).