Friday, March 09, 2007

Too Late for NATO?

I've occasionally offered my opinion that the Russians should want to be a part of the West. Further, pining for glory days of the Soviet Union just leads some Russians to view the West with unjustified hostility and ignore the actual threat in their Far East.

Strategypage writes about recent rumblings from Moscow:

There are Russians who would like to see their country join NATO and the European Union. This group is a minority. Most Russians would like to see Russian strong again, a superpower like the Soviet Union. This makes Russians neighbors nervous, because a "mighty Russia" implies some of Russians neighbors becoming part of Russia once more. This has caused many of Russians western neighbors to join NATO and the European union. The "mighty Russia" crowd sees this as preparations for an invasion of Russia. Yeah, that sounds nuts, but that attitude resonates big time in Russia. Seventy years of Bolshevik propaganda about the danger from the West have had a long term effect. More sober minded Russians realize that a more realistic danger is from the east, where China has claims on much of eastern Russia, and is more likely to become unstable and militaristic than Western Europe. But it was France and Germany that have most recently marched into Russia, so the official Big Threat is to the west.

With the dissolution of the Soviet empire, the non-Russian parts eagerly got out and many sought NATO membership for protection from the Russians.

We will have to wait until the current generation passes from the political scene, I fear, before the Russians themselves might decide they are truly part of the West and not part of the unsavory rest.

However, by the time the Russians decide that they want in to NATO, the rising power of China may well make the NATO institution unwilling to accept Russia into NATO if it means defending Russia against Chinese land claims in the Far East.