Negotiations have just begun between U.S. and Iraqi officials on drafting an amnesty policy, which would reach out to Iraqi militants fighting U.S. forces, say officials in both the Iraqi and American governments.
But foreign extremists like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, responsible for Iraq's bloodiest attacks, would not be offered any amnesty, the Iraqi and U.S. authorities told The Associated Press in recent days.
The amnesty proposal is seen as a key weapon to split the insurgency between Iraqi and non-Iraqi lines and further alienate foreign fighters like al-Zarqawi.
Iraq's minister for national security said Sunday an amnesty policy is being drawn up, but he said insurgent groups first must do more to convince authorities they are serious about making peace.
"Those who had committed homicides and caused blood shedding for the innocents will be excluded from this amnesty," said the minister, Abdul Karim al-Inizi. "Talking about issuing an amnesty soon is premature as this depends on whether the insurgents want to take a step forward."
Sometimes, people over here react with disgust that we would talk to the people who have killed our soldiers and Marines:
The issue is politically charged with the potential to enrage many Iraqis and Americans.
This is ridiculous. Remember the objective. We are trying to end the insurgency--not kill everyone who ever fought us:
"Any successful counterinsurgency strategy requires the U.S. and Iraqi authorities to do everything possible to split the insurgency and persuade as many Sunni elements as possible to join the peaceful political process," said Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who says he has been involved in informal talks.
"This does not mean blanket amnesty," he said. It could, however, mean negotiations that lead to "pardoning or ignoring the actions of movements and opposition elements that supported the insurgency when this was done out of nationalism, fear," Cordesman said.
We did not kill all the Loyalists after the Revolution. We did not kill all the Confederates after the Civil War. We did not kill all the Nazis and Japanese militarists after World War II.
The jihadis will not get amnesty. They will be hunted down. And Baathist leaders will either be captured and tried or essentially exiled. Others may stay in Iraq if they have not done too much and don't attract the attention of Shias or Kurds seeking revenge. They may not get government jobs but they can stay. And others will just be forgotten and allowed to participate in free Iraq as long as they do nothing new against the government and cooperate against the foreign jihadis and the Baathists and Sunnis who will not give up.
As I wrote in January, referring to what I predicted in June 2004:
As sovereignty passes more and more to the Iraqis in concrete terms, it will be easier for the non-Baathist Sunnis to join other Iraqis to kill and expel the foreign invaders--the Islamists--and subdue the Baathists who aid the foreign invaders.
The Baathists screwed up big allying with the Islamists (as I noted in "Center of Gravity" in June 2004). They thought they could use the Islamists to spark a national revolt against American forces but instead the Islamists are giving all Iraqis a foreign enemy to rally against.
This will be our enemy's critical error in this war.
It is taking time to exploit this enemy error but slowly we are doing so.
