Oops. My Bad

Remember the plastic turkey issue that the CIA was (steel yourself!) trying to kill al Qaeda members?

Well, the disclosure by Panetta was nothing but a huge mistake that harms our intelligence agencies:

Three former CIA directors have privately told their successor he had his facts wrong when he revealed an illegal assassination program, reports Joseph Finder, and his spies will suffer for it.

Please read it all. Panetta won't admit any error, of course. (So much for the loyal opposition's constant claim that Bush just needed to admit error and move on.)

And rejoice that such high caliber men now lead our nation's defense efforts.

Keep on Rolling

American and Paksitani efforts against the jihadis in Pakistan are taking a toll on the enemy:

Security forces captured the Pakistani Taliban's top spokesman, and he acknowledged the death of the group's leader in a recent U.S. missile strike, officials said Tuesday — further signs the militants are in disarray since the American attack.

Good. But don't let up. Stopping before they are pounded and defeated just gives them a chance to regroup and come at us again.

A Guy Can Dream

Why God gave us JDAMs.

Insurance Policy

The struggle for Iraq is hardly over even as our casualties plummet in the aftermath of our withdrawal of combat units from Iraq's cities.

I've noted that the biggest armed threat to Iraq lies in the Arab-Kurd division.

And we certainly need to start drawing down our troops in combat so the Iraqis can learn and fully take over.

That said, I'm all on board taking out some insurance by staying militarily involved in the one area that could see real fighting in the near term:

America's top commander in Iraq said Monday he wants to deploy U.S. soldiers alongside Iraqi and Kurdish troops in a disputed swath of northern territory following a series of horrific bombings by insurgents hoping to stoke an Arab-Kurdish conflict.

The move would be a departure from the security pact that called for Americans to pull back from populated areas on June 30. But Gen. Ray Odierno warned that al-Qaida in Iraq was exploiting tensions between the Iraqi army and the Kurdish militia, the peshmerga, to carry out attacks on villages not guarded by either side. The bombings have killed scores of people since Aug. 7.

The U.S. soldiers would act in an oversight role to help the troops work together to secure areas along a fault line of land claimed by both Arabs and Kurds, Odierno said, stressing no final decision had been made.

"It won't be for long if we do it. It'll be just to build confidence in the forces so they're comfortable working together, then we'll slowly pull ourselves out," Odierno told reporters during a briefing at the U.S. military headquarters on the outskirts of Baghdad. "I think they just all feel more comfortable if we're there initially."

Much as the split of Czechoslovakia under peaceful measures was no significant threat to European peace, an eventual split of the Kurdish regions from Iraq under peaceful terms would be no threat to Middle East peace.

In my opinion, it makes little sense for the Kurds to risk independence if Iraq remains a free democracy. But this domestic outcome is still in doubt, so the Kurds can be excused for seeing independence as a way to protect themselves.

But we also aren't at the point where we could have a peaceful split accepted by the rest of Iraq or neighboring states. The survival of an independent Kurdish region depends on that acceptance, but the Kurds might get a serious case of stupid with this end state in sight.

Put our troops back in the field up north. Winning the peace still requires some fighting to keep terrorists from leveraging the divisions into open warfare between Kurds and Arabs in Iraq.

Arctic Sea Under Russian Control

You'll recall the mystery of the Arctic Sea's disappearance. The Russian merchant ship had rumors swirling and nobody could find it.

The Russians have the ship:

Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov informed President Dmitry Medvedev that the Russian-crewed freighter had been found safe about 300 miles from Cape Verde and that the 15 crew members were taken aboard another vessel for questioning.

The details stopped there.

Since the Arctic Sea sailed from the Finnish port of Pietarsaari on July 21 with a euro1.3 million ($1.8 million) cargo of timber, rumors and unconfirmed reports of misadventure has followed it.

It is interesting that the Russians removed the crew from the ship to the warship that intercepted the Arctic Sea.

I don't think that the lack of details is itself suspicious. These are Russians we're talking about, after all.

But the point remains that a ship able to disappear for this period of time could have sailed into a launch position if it carried cruise or ballistic missiles.

UPDATE: The Russians have the hijackers:

The two Russians, four Estonians and two Latvians were detained at sea after the Russian navy took control of the ship at an undisclosed location believed to be off the west coast of Africa.

"These people, claiming their boat had engine problems, boarded the Arctic Sea and, using the threat of arms, demanded that the crew follow all of their orders unconditionally," Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said.

I wonder if we'll ever find out what happened?

UPDATE: The ship never actually "disappeared" but nobody admitted it to avoid tipping off the hijackers. This significantly lowers my worry about a ship being used to fire missiles.

Disbanding the Army

The Russians are turning loose a lot of military officers during an economic downturn:

[There are] 200,000 military officers who face early retirement, as Russia conducts a sweeping reform that will eliminate the jobs of six out of every 10 members of its top-heavy officer corps.

The government says reducing the ranks of senior officers is just one of the changes needed to turn a behemoth institution of more than 1.1 million personnel into a modern army trained to fight terrorism and regional conflicts. But many in this army town say the reform doesn't take people into consideration.

The Russians surely need to reform their military to recognize that there simply aren't reserve military units that need those excess officers to lead them during war.

If anybody in Russia is prone to stoking discontent to further their political goals, 200,000 trained soldiers and leaders out on their ear without the means to support themselves or their families (not to mention the loss of social standing) represent a powerful source of street power.

A Rising Asia Floats All Powers

I've argued that even the rise of Chinese power does not threaten our dominant role in the western Pacific because of the constraints that Asian powers place on Chinese power and the role of our uncommitted power. We remain the off-shore balancer even with far less relative power:

Remember that geography (and our completely dominant Navy) means our power is free to deploy worldwide while China is hemmed in by hostile or potentially hostile neighbors. It's the Expeditionary Kingdom versus the Trapped in the Middle Kingdom.

This article goes into why our power will remain dominant in the western Pacific. As a distant power reliant on allies in Asia to project our power to Asia, we are a safer dominant power than China--or anyone else--can be:

This interdependent relationship means that the US is not so powerful that it can readily ignore the wishes of key states, and it is here that its apparent weakness is actually strength. America is not a Hobbesian Leviathan with absolute authority and power. Indeed, China's strategists are frequently puzzled by the lack of "balancing" that takes place against the US in the region. But it is puzzling only if we characterize Asia as being multi-polar rather than hierarchical.

In fact, any balancing tends to take place in order to preserve the hierarchy, not to replace or supersede it. Other states tend to resist bids by any Asian power -- be it Japan, China or India -- to rise to the top of the pyramid. As a foreign-based power, the US needs the cooperation of Asian partners. This keeps the top dog in check. Were an Asian country like China to rise to the top, it would not need the same level of regional cooperation and acquiescence to maintain its position and military footholds.

As China and India rise, and Japan becomes more "normal," they will balance each other within the US-led hierarchy to ensure that the US remains on top and one or the other doesn't dominate. If China makes a bid for regional hegemony, it will find it difficult to resist the structural constraints placed on it within this hierarchy.

Indeed, the rise of Asian powers with offensive military capabilities should increase our influence.

As long as Asian powers were basically large masses of territory and people difficult to conquer from sheer size, but lacking offensive power, Asian powers didn't need to fear each other nearly as much.

But with Asian powers gaining the offensive conventional military power to threaten each other, they may need the help of another power. And as I noted in the post linked above, we retain the greatest amount of uncommitted and deployable military power on the planet.

Don't write off America so quickly. We'll be the power to reckon with for a very long time--unless we screw it up ourselves, of course.

Pure Insanity

If this story makes sense to you, truly the modern American State Department has a place for you:

Myanmar freed an ailing American whom it had sentenced to seven years of hard labor and handed him to an influential U.S senator on Sunday, a move that could help persuade Washington to soften its hardline policy against the military regime.

So, Burma is a thug state that we don't like because it oppresses its people and now seeks nuclear weapons.

The Burmese arrested, tried, and sentenced a mentally disturbed American, becoming a thug state unjustly holding a mentally disturbed American.

An American Senator chats up the thug rulers who then release the American prisoner.

So we return to the situation of Burma being just a plain thug state.

Yet the act of releasing the American to get us to the status quo ante is deemed to be such an advance in Burmese junta good will that we should "soften" our "hardline" policy against the regime.

Burma, North Korea, and Iran all use the "grab an American and then release them" ploy to get better relations. And we let them get away with it. This is apparently that "smart" diplomacy we've heard so much about.

The Hondurans have so much to learn to be wise in the ways of modern statescraft.

Respect Abroad

I've advised the Hondurans to rogue up if they want our respect during the current Zelaya Affair. Right now, we feel free to insist that the Hondurans let the proto-thug Zelaya return to the presidency. Why? Because nobody worries about Honduras.

To get the high-level visits, extended hand, and promises of our help, this post sums up what interim president Micheletti (or any leader) needs to do:

Set up a despotic dynasty, starve your people, break every agreement you sign, defy the resolutions of world bodies, develop and disseminate nuclear technology, test long-range rockets, keep a million under-fed dwarfs in arms, and top it off by abducting a couple of American journalists, and presto! You'll get the ex-leader of the free world — or maybe the ex-free world? — scurrying to the dismal seat of your dysfunctional parody of a dictatorship for a photo opportunity. There will be America groveling at the feet of North Korea in Pyongyang — in Pyong-effing-yang, no less. Isn't that something?

Yeah, that's how you pass the global test.

Who knew that restoring our image in the world relied so much on courting the opinions of the world's thug rulers?

The War Within Islam

It continues to drive me crazy that so many in the West assume that the most hateful and radicalized form of Islam is the "authentic" form of Islam that we have to learn to live with. This isn't being culturally sensitive. It is being stupid.

Even in Pakistan, where jihadis are a grave threat to us, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (and let's not forget the Indians), locals complain of how their form of Islam has been supplanted:

Pashtun literature used to be full of romance and praise for the beauty of nature. Now it reflects the death and explosions that have filled the lives of Pakistanis.

The literary trend is the lesser-known victim of the "Talibanization" in Pakistan's northwest. Militants imposed their ultraconservative brand of Islam in and around the Swat Valley until the military ousted them this summer, and they continue to hold sway throughout the tribal regions.

Residents in these areas say their reign is robbing this predominantly Pashtun area of its centuries-old culture and tearing the social fabric, from poetry to dancing to community centers. Even in Swat, where residents displaced by the fighting are making their way home, many entertainers have not come back for fear the Taliban might.

"This is an attempt to Arabize the Pashtun society by attacking their culture and their highly revered institutions," says Said Alam Mehsud, a leader of the Aman Tehreek, a peace movement recently launched in Peshawar.

We do our jihadi enemies a great favor by simply assuming that their form of Islam is the true form of Islam. Our jihadi enemies seek to expand their view of Islam even as they seek to kill us. The two are not unrelated.

It is not wrong for us to conclude that the Saudi-supported extremist Islam is a form of Islam that must be rejected and defeated. Many Moslems will agree with us, if we have the self confidence to reject radical Islam.

Moral Redemption

Thank God my support for our war effort--whether in Iraq or Afghanistan--is no longer a morally wrong position according to progressive activists polled:

What's truly striking in Greenberg's poll is the degree to which the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have fallen off the progressive radar. I attended the first YearlyKos convention, in 2006, and have kept up with later ones, and it's safe to say that while people who attended those gatherings couldn't stand George W. Bush in general, their feelings were particularly intense when it came to opposing the war in Iraq. It animated their activism; they hated the war, and they hated Bush for starting it. They weren't that fond of the fighting in Afghanistan, either.

Now, with Obama in the White House, all that has changed. Greenberg presented respondents with a list of policy priorities and asked, "Please indicate which two you think progressive activists should be focusing their attention and efforts on the most." The winner was passing comprehensive health care reform, with 60 percent, and number two was passing "green energy policies that address environmental concerns," with 22 percent. Tied for eighth place, named by just eight percent of respondents, was "working to end our military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan."

And you doubt Bush Derangement Syndrome animated much of the Left?

I have no doubt that the Left still hates the campaigns in both Afghanistan and Iraq. But the fighting just isn't that important to them, for the moment. Which tells you more about their morality than mine, I suppose.

Breaking Up is Hard To Do

Despite diplomacy, India is worried about China's threat, with some in China even speaking of the need to divide India into 30 smaller countries:

[T]here was no progress when it came to the main subject for discussion--competing territorial claims in Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin. Beijing and New Delhi are no closer to settling disputes that led the two giants to war in 1962 and that have, in recent years, hampered relations. Chinese officials see their nation on the rise and feel no need to compromise. The number of incursions by China's troops into Indian-controlled territory appears to be increasing. ...

This month, Zhan Lue, a Chinese analyst connected to China's Ministry of National Defense, suggested that Beijing try to divide India into as many as 30 states. The article, unfortunately, appears to represent the thinking of Chinese strategists and has been widely circulated inside China.

Forget Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai, it's Hindi Chini bang bang time.

The Chinese should be careful about loose talk of breaking up Asian giants. You never can tell who that might apply to.

Defending Tbilisi

At first it seemed rather ridiculous for the Georgians to send troops for Afghanistan when the Georgians need every troop they have to defend themselves.

But at least the Georgians will get US training and combat experience:

A group of U.S. marine trainers will arrive in Tbilisi on August 15 to help prepare Georgian battalion for deployment in Afghanistan in spring, 2010, the U.S. embassy in Georgia said on Friday.

“The training will focus on skill sets necessary for Georgian forces to operate alongside ISAF partner forces in a counterinsurgency environment in Afghanistan,” the embassy said.

A company will deploy in the fall and a battalion the next year. The Georgians will deploy with no caveats--limits on deployment. So combat veterans will return home where new conventional skill sets will enhance their veteran status.

And the Georgians have a chit to call in should the Russians attack--we owe the Georgians for fighting with us.

Hell No, Please Don't Go

Iraqis are worried enough about violence to voice concerns that we shouldn't leave too soon:

Unnerved by bombings that have killed hundreds this summer, many Iraqis are losing faith in their own security forces and fear the Americans are leaving too quickly.

The misgivings about the U.S. pullback from the cities, and even about the Dec. 31, 2011 deadline for a full withdrawal, come at a time when a senior U.S. officer has suggested the Americans declare victory and leave even sooner.

Iraqis, including military commanders, believe their security forces aren't ready to act alone.

"We do not want a hasty withdrawal. The Americans have promised a responsible withdrawal in coordination with the Iraqi government and they should live up to their commitments," said Abbas al-Bayati, chairman of parliament's security committee.

Some even want our troops back in the cities, fighting.

I certainly don't think we should leave too early, and we need to support the Iraqis who fight in the cities against the remnant resistance and terrorism.

But the Iraqis need to step up despite their worries. They can do it even if they face some rough moments.

We'll be there to help every step of the way--even after 2011. And the Iraqis will be happy to negotiate a new deal that keeps our help and our troops inside Iraq until they are truly ready to stand on their own.

Alone But Right

The Hondurans are resisting efforts to restore the proto-dictator Zelaya to power:

The month-old mediation effort by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias to resolve Honduras's political crisis is foundering under the near-universal opposition of Honduras's top leaders to permitting deposed President Manuel Zelaya to return to power.

Political, business, church, and media leaders say they can't trust Mr. Zelaya to keep the commitments that would limit his authority under the Arias plan because, they say, Zelaya repeatedly violated the Constitution in the days that led up to his June 28 ouster over a proposed public vote that they think was aimed at extending his stay in office.

They also say that Zelaya has proved himself untrustworthy by failing to submit a budget to Congress last year and by shifting left in the middle of his term and allying himself with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, a fierce critic of the United States, traditionally Honduras' most important political and economic ally.

These officials say they prefer that de facto President Roberto Micheletti — or perhaps another senior government official who'd replace him — lead the country through the regularly scheduled Nov. 29 presidential elections and let the newly elected president take over as scheduled Jan. 27.

I hope the Hondurans hold fast. If the world--and more importantly, the United States--is going to screw the Hondurans, the Hondurans should not cooperate in their own demise.

Defying Conventional Wisdom

Well this Axis of El Vil episode is fascinating:

With the growing evidence of Venezuela providing weapons and other support to leftist rebels and drug gangs in Colombia, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has launched a traditional propaganda campaign to drown out this embarrassing news. Chavez does this by claiming that Colombia is conspiring with the United States to invade Venezuela. This is pure fantasy, but plays well in South America, because local dictators and tyrants have long used the United States as the external enemy, to distract people from getting angry about problems closer to home.

So let me get this straight.

There are South Americans who can still believe that America will invade them--notwithstanding the fact that we now have President Obama in charge.

And these same South Americans don't believe that the war in Iraq has made it impossible for us to use our military power elsewhere?

I'm not sure what to make of this because I was assured by our Left that President George W. Bush alienated the world and wrecked our military in Iraq.

Sailing Home, Victors

Three cheers for the Egyptian sailors who took back their fishing boats from those criminal pirates in Somalia:

The crews of two Egyptian fishing vessels that overpowered pirates off the Somali coast have sailed into Red Sea waters on their way home along with eight of their former captors, an Egyptian official said Saturday.

The 34 fishermen, who were held for captive for four months, captured eight of the Somali pirates and were bringing them to Egypt, said Egypt's deputy foreign minister for consular affairs, Ahmed Rizq.

The owner of one of the vessels, Mohammad Nasr, said the crews turned down the Egyptian government's offer to fly them back Friday from Yemen, where they arrived after subduing their captors. Nasr said the fishermen wanted to sail back to demonstrate their courage and pride.

Damn straight. Sail your vessels home, guys. You deserve to see your home port--belated though your homecoming is. You won one for the good guys.

A Dangerous Veteran Back From Overseas

Well, I don't really qualify as a veteran for government benefits based on my service, but I was a trained soldier and I did just come back from Canada. So I assume Secretary Napolitano is worried about me.

I nearly boasted of my avoidance of hassles at the border when I returned to America earlier this week. But I knew I'd be crossing the border briefly today so I held off on hoisting the mission accomplished banner.

Good thing.

So I take Lamb and her mom to the train station in Windsor this morning. Just a quick trip there, a hug and kiss for Lamb, and a wave goodbye, and then I was off for the border and another encounter with the Customs service.

I thought the mini-interview was going well. This time--unlike last year--I didn't have a female agent with divorce issues who questioned my vacation habits. How much money do I have on me? Oh, maybe 50 or 60 dollars US. Any Canadian money? No. Any stops in Canada during my 45 minutes there? No.

Just when I thought I was going to be released into downtown Detroit, the agent slapped a big dark orange sticky note on my windshield and told me to pull over to the left to have my car searched.

Seriously? Well, I just thought that. I might have been smirking. This was just too good. So what was it? Travel profile as a man alone? The short time? Was I acting suspicious? Was it just random?

Whatever. I asked exactly where I was supposed to turn to avoid going the wrong way and mistaken for a border runner. "Cavity seach" came to mind, and nobody wants that.

I pulled into a space at the direction of an officer, shut off my car, and at his instruction, left my phone and keys in the car while taking my ID into the office.

So I strolled in, greeted the seated agent, and handed over my passport. I took a seat. There was Secretary Napolitano looking down at me from her official photo. She was on to me.

Clearly, I'm a bad boy. Best to carefully sift the possessions of the rakish character I surely presented at the border, cigarette dangling from my lip and a sneer to boot as I glared at the agent through my sun glasses.

Well, OK, it wasn't like that at all.

But still. I looked dangerous, it seems. I could Rambo all your sorry Homeland Defense asses with the sharp edge of my Michigan AAA card and my camo pattern cargo shorts. That's right. Search my car. I give off danger pheremones that make male security agents sweat and make women want me.

If they did find any missing chess pieces under the seats or in the cushions, I'd have appreciated a heads up. Mister would be happy. But apparently not.

I didn't notice them popping hubcaps off, or anything too serious. And they didn't adjust my seat or change my radio station, so no harm, no foul, as far as I'm concerned.

They called my name after a while and I collected my car and proceeded a free man into America. Me, a seething cauldron of boiling ex-Army anger ready to explode into extremist anger now that I'm home and back on the block.

I mean, after the horrors I saw in Canada can you blame me? I witnessed a stoned woman swaying in an annoying fashion at a Tori Amos concert! I drank beer to some excess! I took home soaps and shampoo from my hotel!!!

So there you go ladies, I am a person of interest. I'm bad.

So take a walk on the rant side. My email is on the left.

But don't say you weren't warned.

Both With Us and Against Us

Pakistani opposition to the Taliban has doubled but views of America are down:

Pakistanis' views on the Taliban have shifted dramatically in the past year, with 70 percent now opposing the militants, according to a new poll. The United States doesn't fare well either, with 64 percent of Pakistanis seeing Washington as an enemy.

Of course, the difference is the Pakistanis people are now willing to fight the Taliban. I bet few are willing to fight America. Calling America an enemy is a cheap gesture since everyone knows we just ship in money and won't bomb their luxury hotels or visiting cricket teams.

I wouldn't go back to the days when Pakistanis had a higher opinion of us yet thought the jihadis that sheltered in their country were just swell chaps with good hearts.

The Black Hand

This is troubling:

Russian news reports say two people were killed and several others wounded in a bomb blast in Abkhazia during Wednesday's visit by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

I can only wonder who set them off inside Russian controlled territory.

Russia wants a final reckoning with Georgia. Don't be surprises if an incident like this in the future leads to Russian demands on Georgia to give Russians free access to Georgia to "investigate" the crime--or else.

All I'm saying is that if I was whatever the Russian rank equivalent to "archduke" is, I wouldn't go on any tours of South Ossetia or Abkhazia any time soon.