The Russian invasion of Ukraine keeps getting knocked out of the headlines by fighting in the Middle East. These are sad days indeed for Putin's goal of making Russia the Big Bad that demands the world's attention and makes targets quake in their boots. And it is getting worse for Russia every day the invasion drags on. How worse could it get?
The war appears to be continuing into 2026 despite Russia’s shortage of cash and soldiers. Russia has hired thousands of North Korean soldiers as a stopgap, but this is a limited resource. North Korea is demanding help with its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. This angered China, the last major ally Russia has. Not only is China reducing economic cooperation with Russia but is also raising the issue of extensive portions of Russia’s Far Eastern Pacific coastal provinces that are claimed by China. Over the last few centuries Russia did take many of these territories from China and now China sees an opportunity to get them back, or simply take them back. If this happens, Russia could lose up to twenty percent of its territory.
Russia's bulldozer is shaking, smoking, and shedding bolts.
Will Putin do something dramatic to try to restore his momentum? Would he really use nukes against targets in Ukraine--even if he avoids striking people or units? How would his military and people react? How would China react? Would that break Ukraine or bolster their resolve?
Yet how valid is that threat? Can Russia risk revealing the true state of its foundation of its defense?
Russia has found that its first major step west has not gone anywhere near what Putin planned. Even as China looms over Russia's Far East and gains influence in Central Asia, which Russia has tried to maintain as its backyard for eventual reincorporation into the empire. If Russia believes it can cut a real deal over Ukraine to end the hostility with NATO that has gotten way out of hand from its initial purpose of concealing Russian appeasement of China, Russia could pivot to Asia with its remaining strength and prepare to deter or defeat China's drive for influence or control of large chunks of Russian or former Soviet territory.
Putin will do that if he has any brains, rather than dangle the Far East in front of China and continue to provoke European rearmament.
And perhaps much worse.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: Photo from here.
