Russia lost their Central Asian imperial holdings when the USSR collapsed. China will use this development to move in and supplant lingering Russian influence:
Officials from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met at the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Energy Ministers’ Dialogue in late September to discuss how Central Asia’s energy export potential could be harnessed to bring electricity to markets in Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and others, as well as opening up trade arteries to Europe.
This is on top of other factors drawing China inland.
China's growing economy needs energy. If this latest initiative harnesses energy for China, China's flag will follow, I dare say, whether deliberately or in a fit of absentmindedness.
And Russia should worry that China's ability to take Russia's Far East rests not on a direct attack that seizes the territory (and risks Russian nuclear retaliation) but a interim step of secession from Russia, the way Central Asia is now vulnerable to Chinese penetration and domination without a credible Russian nuclear threat.
