Uh oh:
Last month, Beijing moved thousands of troops across the border into this restive city. They came in on trucks and armored cars, by bus and by ship. ...
A month on, Asian and Western envoys in Hong Kong say they are certain the late-August deployment was not a rotation at all, but a reinforcement. Seven envoys who spoke to Reuters said they didn’t detect any significant number of existing forces in Hong Kong returning to the mainland in the days before or after the announcement.
The original garrison was 3,000 to 5,000 troops. The estimate is that 10,000 to 12,000 are there. The troops are People's Armed Police and other reinforcements in addition to the PLA Army garrison.
There are also 30,000 civilian police. Who knows how loyal they are if they are given the orders to shoot to kill.
I noted that the rotation might not be a simple rotation. I did not think that China could get away with simply lying given that somebody would notice nobody left.
Although I guess this article is a sign that I was right. Troops didn't leave when the others came in. And people noticed.
We may be getting closer to using these guys given that increasingly aggressive police actions (and Michael Yon continues to film the protests) aren't convincing the protesters to go home and give up, even after several months of persistent and sometimes massive protests.
Indeed, China might need those troops given the changes in public opinion among Hong Kongers:
I have noted that our Revolution started out as a protest by colonists demanding their rights as Englishmen. It took over a year to go from the first armed confrontation to the declaration of independence. Where are Hong Kongers on that transition? Or are they making it?
If Hong Kongers are about to wage an insurgency, will those forces be enough?
Standard COIN calculations say you need 2% of the population in security forces. This is a rule of thumb. And in Hong Kong's case you have to consider that support forces that would normally be part of that total would be stationed in China outside of the Hong Kong territory.
That said, Hong Kong has 7.5 million people. Two percent of that indicates a need for 150,000 security forces for a lengthy campaign against determined resistance.
One would have to add in Triad gang thugs as Chinese security forces personnel. Although they might create more insurgents than they kill or intimidate.
If Hong Kongers aren't firmly committed to resistance, a big bang of force could disperse the protests and cause them to lose heart. China might encourage flight of those people abroad. Seventh Fleet might be busy picking up boat people in the South China Sea.
But if that big bang fails, then the numbers may matter. Of course, China could ramp up numbers at will with PAP, PLAA, and secret police from the mainland to whatever number is required.
But if the resistance is to win in battle, it will need weapons and outside support. Who will provide it? Without outside support for the resistance, China's chances of success go up over time.
Another caveat is that the Chinese won't care about winning hearts and minds. Their long-term strategy would include deporting resisting Hing Kongers to Tibet and Xinjiang as involuntary Han colonists or straight into concentration camps (to be clear, not death camps) in Xinjiang province; and loyal Han would be pushed into Hong Kong in larger numbers to replace the expelled or killed.
At some level it seems like the only way Hong Kong wins is if China itself falters in a lengthy struggle and the democracy virus escapes Hong Kong into the wilds of China.
Has Xi made that more likely?
Xi’s pursuit of party control and nationalistic rhetoric has made his legitimacy and that of his Communist Party more susceptible to political and economic shocks than is generally recognized.
Tips to Instapundit for the rotation and poll links.
UPDATE: The Hong Kong protesters have been looking at other protest movements for inspiration.
Perhaps in their struggle they should look to another small group that fought against a far larger state--the East Timor independence movement against Indonesia.
It was a quarter-century struggle from the Indonesian invasion after the Portugese pulled out of their colony to independence for East Timor.
