North Korea test-fired what is believed to be a ballistic missile built to be launched from a submarine from waters off its east coast into Japan’s exclusive economic zone off Shimane Prefecture on Wednesday, showing off military technologies that if successfully developed would make it significantly more difficult for the United States to destroy its nuclear arsenal.
North Korea only has an ancient diesel model to hold such a missile if perfected. I imagine it would be sunk quickly by Japanese or South Korean subs that stalk it when it leaves port (here's related news on sub detection, including South Korea's incentive to improve ASW capabilities).
I don't think talks with North Korea can solve the problem.
People like to say that the Iraq War proved that despots need nukes. But that's not true. Iraq proved we'd tolerate despots if they give up nukes. That's what the 1991 ceasefire did under Bush 41, notwithstanding the later Clinton-era policy that made regime change in Iraq our official policy after Saddam defied his 1991 commitment to disarm and prove it. In 2003 we invaded Iraq because Saddam failed to prove he had given up his WMD programs.
The Libya solution in which Bush 43 got Khadaffi to give up his nuclear program led to the 2011 Obama intervention that led to Khadaffi being killed by rebels.
And the Ukraine solution in which Clinton in 1994 (with the Budapest Memorandum that included Russia and Britain) got Ukraine to give up its massive nuclear arsenal in exchange for guarantees of Ukraine's territorial integrity led to a Russian invasion and dismemberment of Ukrainian territory in 2014 during the Obama administration.
The latter two are the real examples of why North Korea won't trust a deal with us.
But I don't think Trump is willing to strike North Korea if talks fail.
And the North Koreans don't understand that they already have the ultimate deterrent to invasion.
Talk, talk, die, die is our only hope.
