Thursday, October 12, 2017

Missing the Mechanized Forest For the Little Green Trees

NATO's focus on the threat of "little green men" is misplaced given the threat of Russia's heavy forces.

Yes:

[It] is concerning that NATO’s emphasis on “complex civil-military scenarios” in that same Wales Summit declaration — a clear reference to the much-discussed Russian “hybrid warfare” threat — downplays what is really the threat: the prospect of a high-end fight with Russia. To get a better sense of what a realistic threat scenario should look like, even a cursory reading of Kofman’s day-to-day summaries of what the Russians were up to in Zapad-2017 ought to give pause if you are thinking that “little green men” showing up unannounced is the alliance’s major concern.

Yes, Russia's Zapad 2017 highlighted an offensive under threat of NATO air power.

And I think our response to Russia's aggressiveness has been a complete misreading of the Russian Crimea offensive to over-focus on so-called "hybrid" warfare.