I read something on this before and meant to comment on it:
South Korean missile experts have concluded that physical evidence indicates North Korea has not developed any new ballistic missile technology or even manufactured many new missile parts since 2012. The South Koreans are pretty certain of this because since 2012 they have been able to recover (at sea) components of North Korea multi-stage ballistic missiles and examine them. Most North Korean ballistic missile tests are into the sea and the North Koreans have not tried to stop the South Korean recovery (of missile debris) efforts.
After so much research, the North Koreans haven't done anything new since 2012?
I know they are backward, but they have managed to blow off nuclear devices. I find it hard to believe that the North Koreans haven't developed anything new since 2012.
I think we should consider whether North Korea is launching missiles they know will be examined in order to make us believe that we know what is coming.
Surely it would be to the advantage of North Korea to make South Korea, Japan, and America believe we know the details of any missiles our small missile defense systems would face, right?
And given that North Korea's partner Iran is doing a lot of missile tests, wouldn't it make sense for North Korea to subcontract that work to Iran rather than to believe North Korea has made zero progress on missile production?
Hey, fair is fair. I suspect Iran has subcontracted a lot of nuclear work to North Korea--which isn't even under the theoretical limitations of the farcical "Iran deal."
It is tempting to draw conclusions from the only information you have. But never forget that what you have isn't the entire universe of information.
UPDATE: A timely report on North Korean WMD.
