Sunday, August 21, 2016

How to Lose Iraq War 2.0 in a Dramatic Fashion

If I was a nutball Iranian mullah in charge of foreign policy, newly confident of deterring American military action because of the nuclear deal that defanged our military option and because Russian aircraft are now operating out of Iran, I'd time a coup or uprising against the Iraqi government based on the tens of thousands of pro-Iran militias inside Iraq to coincide with the last phases of the capture of Mosul, which would cripple ISIL in Iraq.

If I was a nutball Iranian mullah, I'd also block the Strait of Hormuz with mines, block ships, and shore-based anti-ship assets to trap American naval forces (please include an American and/or French aircraft carrier, I'd pray) in the Persian Gulf; and I'd foment unrest among the Shia of Bahrain in order to at least make America's naval base in the Gulf insecure and at best successfully take over that island--thus denying America our base when our ships can't leave the Gulf.

Add in troops entering southern Iraq to support the Shia revolt in response to their request for fraternal help in order to threaten American supply lines to Iraq and position in Kuwait, and you'd have a lot of American troops distracted by looking north trapped in Iraq, ships trapped in the Gulf, and personnel endangered in Kuwait who would be wonderful leverage (to borrow the current term of art in Washington, D.C.) against America to get us to cave in to the Iranian operation.

If I was an Iranian nutball mullah completely unaffected by the nuanced American efforts to turn Iran into a responsible regional partner of America, of course. Thankfully, I'm not.

As I've long said, giving an enemy time is always an error. Sometimes they use the time granted to thwart our objectives rather than patiently await our killing blow.

Iran has been on notice for two years now about what we plan to do about taking Mosul. If I was a nutball Iranian mullah in charge of foreign policy, I'd have used that time.

And really time the coup or uprising right to coincide with a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine, and Secretary of State Kerry might throw Ukraine under the bus to get Russia's "help" to save our people from Iran Hostage Crisis 2.0 on a scale orders of magnitude greater than the original.

Thank goodness I'm not a nutball Iranian mullah in charge of Iran's foreign policy.