It isn't enough to make Hezbollah fight and bleed for Assad, Iran also wants Israel back in the target mix:
Last week the Israeli Air Force bombed Syrian military and security positions in retaliation for an operation on the Syrian-Israeli border in the Golan Heights. Four Israeli soldiers were wounded when Hezbollah attacked their Jeep. Hezbollah it seems was looking to kidnap them. This time they failed, but, said Hezbollah sources, “We are sure we will succeed in the near future.”
Maybe. If so, it is sure to resonate throughout the Middle East. The last time Hezbollah kidnapped Israeli soldiers it touched off a monthlong conflict in the summer of 2006. After the devastation Hezbollah suffered, hundreds of its elite troops dead and billions of dollars’ worth of damage done, the party’s general secretary, Hassan Nasrallah, said that had he known how the Israelis would respond, he never would have taken their soldiers in the first place.
I noted the incident, but then it looked like an attempt to kill Israelis rather than kidnap.
I still think Israel screwed up their military operations in 2006 and that Hezbollah won that clash by enduring the blunt pounding that Israel inflicted on Lebanon as a whole and for preventing the Israelis from achieving anything looking like a battlefield victory.
But nonetheless the leaders of Hezbollah are not eager to pay that price any time soon to win another such victory, lest it ruin them. Iran has other ideas.
Of course, I think Israel has other ideas, too. If it comes to another round of fighting, I think Israel has absorbed lessons of 2006 and will mount a ground invasion deep into Lebanon that goes all the way to Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's infrastructure.
This won't be a conquest, but a large raid or punitive mission that puts troops on the ground to rip things up before withdrawing rather than counting on the ability to do the damage from the air alone.
