China is much stronger than they once were. They are feeling their power:
China’s leadership appears prone to hubris. Whether that failing is mostly a Chinese thing, or a communist thing, or a Chinese Communist thing, is open to debate. Whatever the case, a parable of China’s inexorable rise appears to beguile folk in Beijing and other power centers. History, they believe, is on China’s side.
The fact is, China has only demonstrated that they can contest us for control of the seas near China:
Yet reports of Chinese naval mastery are greatly exaggerated. PLA Navy mariners have proved that they can … navigate through straits traversed by merchantmen and warships as a matter of routine. They have resolutely … operated a few hundred miles offshore for a short time. They have accomplished these great feats … unopposed. Yawn.
This hardly amounts to ruling the waves.
Not that China couldn't use their geographic nearness to the campaign area compared to our distance to inflict a short and sharp defeat of our forces. Japan managed that in 1941 after all, with a GDP only a tenth of ours. Heck, Japan reached out all the way to Hawaii.
You say, but we beat Japan--and even nuked them. Surely China wouldn't make the same mistake!
China can say, times are different. Then, America had nukes. Now China has them, too.
And a GDP half of ours.
So don't discount China's ability to inflict a tactical defeat by initiating a surprise attack on our forward forces while hoping for a strategic victory if we accept that defeat and accept negotiations to end the fight before we can regain the advantage.
Are you really willing to argue this administration wouldn't be willing to do exactly that?
Further, China could gain a victory over us just by inflicting a short and sharp defeat on one of our allies, and merely delaying us until China defeats that ally. Would we join a fight in those circumstances?
And even if we are stronger and we would decide to fight and win, all we need to have a destructive war is China's firm but mistaken belief that they are stronger and that we will decide not to fight.
I don't even think time is on China's side. I think they'll peak before they pass us (and if they do, not for long) and then lose ground. But in a crisis, will the Chinese think that their time has already arrived and act on that belief?
