Sunday, December 15, 2013

Enter the Soft Power

Europe is willing to keep pulling Ukraine westward despite Russian threats to Ukraine.

Well, this is interesting:

Ukraine's deputy prime minister said Thursday his financially troubled country will soon sign a trade and cooperation deal with the EU after the bloc promised more aid to the former Soviet republic.

Serhiy Arbuzov's comment came after a day of talks with EU Commissioner Stefan Fuele in Brussels, which were being closely watched by anti-government protesters in Ukraine who are demanding such a deal.

"Ukraine will soon sign this association agreement with the European Union," said Arbuzov. That would mark a U-turn by President Viktor Yanukovych, who had refused to close such a deal with the European Union at a summit in Lithuania two weeks ago.

So what did the trick? Massive Ukrainian protests? More EU financial help? The prospect of China's newly extended nuclear umbrella?

On the other hand, just a few days after an agreement looks likely, this says it is not:

Štefan Füle, the EU's commissioner for enlargement, wrote earlier today that work towards an agreement with Ukraine has been suspended and that arguments being made by Ukraine to revise the terms of a possible agreement "have no grounds in reality." President Yanukovych is scheduled to travel to Moscow this week to discuss a trade agreement with Russia that could shut the door on closer ties with the EU.

The grim mood on a possible EU-Ukraine deal, punctuated by the ongoing protests in Kiev, is a departure from the end of the week, when Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign affairs chief, indicated that the EU trade agreement was on track to possibly being signed next year.

This is quite a tug of war. With a China card thrown in for good measure. Only the fate of an entire country as at stake, so no big deal. Right?

The European Union may suck. But it sucks far less than Putin's Russia.

UPDATE: And another angle on Europe:

Divisions emerged in the European Union's policy towards Ukraine on Monday as the Dutch foreign minister slapped down a senior EU official for announcing on Twitter that he had suspended work on a trade agreement with Kiev.

EU foreign ministers arriving for talks on the EU's relations with Ukraine and Russia said the door remained open for Ukraine to seal a far-reaching trade and political agreement with Brussels despite Kiev's last-minute decision in November to pull back from signing the deal.

The good news is that the Ukraine is still in play. Just keep Secretary of State Kerry away. I don't think we can stand another Kerry deal after his face plants on Syria and Iran.