Tuesday, July 16, 2013

New Incentives

Is democracy pushing Prime Minister Maliki to reach out to Sunni Arabs willing to work within the system?

That would be nice (tip to Instapundit):

Earlier this year, according to the Post, Maliki was following the advice of Iran to play the role of “Shiite defender.” In April, for example, security forces raided a Sunni protest, killing at least 50 people.

But provincial elections didn’t go well for Maliki, who faces a reelection battle next year. His party lost control of local governments in Baghdad and Basra.

Lacking the full support of his Shiite base, Maliki has thus reached out to moderate Sunnis. “There will be a political settlement with a segment of the Sunni community,” one of his top advisers says.

And reaching out to Sunni Arabs requires Iraq to refrain from helping Iran in Syria (and generally).

I still wish we had troops in Iraq to help Iraq resist Iranian pressure. But perhaps we helped set up a system that will work without us in the critical early years of democracy.

I never said Iraq would fail without us--just that the odds of success were reduced without us. Let's hope for the best. And given my worries that Maliki's outreach to Kurds was just an effort to avoid a two-front war with radicalized Sunnis, this is a good sign.

Although coming to terms with moderate Sunnis would be useful to pressure those who lean toward reigniting the insurgency and terrorism into quieting down and working within the system.