Sunday, July 28, 2013

Moving Closer to War

China continues to push the Philippines in territorial disputes. The Philippines will move forces closer to potential battle sites. Japan and America won't be far behind.

Manila is serious about building the capacity to resist China's territory grabs:

The Philippines plans to relocate major air force and navy camps to a former U.S. naval base northwest of Manila to gain faster access to waters being contested by China in the South China Sea, according to the country's defense chief and a confidential government report.

Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin said Sunday that as soon as relocation funds are available the government plans to transfer air force and naval forces and their fleets of aircraft and warships to Subic Bay, which has become a busy free port since the 1992 departure of the U.S. Navy.

Japan is stepping in as well to enable the Philippines to resist China:

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged support for Philippine maritime forces on Saturday as both countries confront China in separate territorial disputes.

Following a meeting with President Benigno Aquino III in the Philippine capital, Abe announced that Japan will provide a concessional loan to build 10 coast guard patrol boats for the Philippines.

And Japan is asserting the right of "collective defense" to (I assume) nullify their pacifist constitution's restrictions on using their military self defense forces outside of Japan so Japan could fight alongside the Philippines in defense of Philippines territory.

So the Philippines will have more assets to base closer to Chinese forces by using old American bases and the possibility of Japanese forces fighting with them.

Hey, if the Philippines upgrade those bases to allow their forces to rotate in so some will be able to react faster to the Chinese, that will keep those places warm for our forces to flow in during a crisis, wouldn't it?

Why yes, it would:

Relocating about 250 air force officers and men to Subic, along with "increased rotational presence of foreign visiting forces" would bolster business and trade at the port, the military document said.

Subic's international airport has been underutilized since U.S. courier giant FedEx transferred its lucrative regional hub from Subic to China in 2009, officials said.

The Philippines plans to grant visiting U.S. forces, ships and aircraft temporary access to more of its military camps to allow for a larger number of joint military exercises than are currently staged each year.

A larger U.S. presence could be used for disaster response and serve as a deterrent to what Philippine officials say have been recent aggressive intrusions by China into its territorials waters.

China hopes that its aggressive stance will demoralize neighbors into accepting Chinese conquests. So far, it is just angering neighbors and giving them reasons to view China as a threat and arm up.

If China keeps pushing like they are the only ones who matter, one day someone will push back hard.

UPDATE: Strategypage has more, including this bit to help you sleep well tonight:

All this is disturbingly similar to the situation in the late 19th century when Germany, recently united (in 1870) for the first time and turning into the premier economic power in Europe (only the U.S. was larger) began demanding territory that belonged to others and insisting it was also owed greater respect and deference because Germans had been wronged by their neighbors for thousands of years. The Chinese complaint is that Europeans (and their lackey Japan) took advantage of a temporarily weakened China and now China is back on its feet and wants payback. The German demands led to nearly a century of war and conflict that left over 100 million dead. The Germans wanted “a place in the sun” and got desolation and despair instead. China believes its situation is different, but their neighbors don’t agree.

Götterdämmerung. Let's hope China's economy doesn't tank so badly that war seems like the better chance of preserving Chinese Communist Party rule.

UPDATE: We're bolstering our first line of defense:

Washington will raise its military assistance to the Philippines by about two-thirds, Manila's foreign ministry said on Wednesday, helping its oldest security ally in Asia defend vast maritime borders against what it sees as Chinese assertiveness.

Albert Del Rosario said Washington had increased its military assistance package from $30 million next fiscal year to about $50 million, the highest level since U.S. troops returned to the Philippines in 2000.

This isn't huge. But remember that China doesn't want any violence to rise above the threshold of "incident" to war-like actions. So while the Philippines alone can't hope to match China in a war, in small-scale military incidents, the Philippines can afford to be as good as the Chinese. Then the Chinese have to decide whether it is worth the risk of war with Japan and America, trade disruption, and possible domestic unrest to overpower the Philippines in a big operation.