What Goes Up

I find it amusing that people argue about China's future as if they think that China is immune to economic reality.  The author says China will continue to grow, citing only the higher growth statistics, strongly implying this will continue.

You don't have to believe China will stumble and collapse to think that China will not be able to maintain the high growth rates as the easy input of turning peasants into factory workers dwindles. Nor do you have to think disaster awaits if you think China could actually have recessions.

And the dismissal of Chinese poverty by saying their income gap is almost as bad as America's is just insane when you consider that over 160 million Chinese live on less than $1.25 per day!

China needs high growth rates to avoid social unrest. They can't maintain that growth rate. So at some point, China will have to face social unrest that could threaten communist party control. Or worse, with "China" becoming a geographic term rather than a political term. Or something in between that leaves China more prosperous but still not more powerful than America and with a China either less under the control of the CCP in Peking or less controlled from the center, period--or both.

Or do you really think that China has reasonably enlightened rulers who have figured out how to plan an economy without setbacks?