Monday, August 08, 2011

In for a Penny

As is common in minority governments, the Alawite rulers of Syria reached out to other minorities abused by the majority. They recruited Christians for the government and Christians have had a prominent role in the economy.

Assad has fired the defense minister--apparently unhappy with his civilian-killing role--and replaced him with a Christian:

Gen. Ali Habib, the country's defense minister since 2009, was removed from his post because of health problems, the SANA report said, but some analysts said the general was unhappy with the crackdown.

He was replaced by Gen. Dawoud Rajha, a 64-year-old Christian, SANA said.

Having long benefited from their status, the Christians are now expected to pound the majority Sunnis out in the streets until the Sunnis break.

The Christians aren't going to be allowed to sit this out neutral. They win with the Alawites. Or they lose and share the retribution.

This will end ugly.

UPDATE: More on Syria from Strategypage. While many government military casualties have been the result of gun battles between loyal and defecting troops or those unwilling to shoot, a sizable number--perhaps most--apparently have been the result of armed resistance from jihadis. And with more protesters arming up, the military casualties will go up.

Iran's role in propping up Assad could very well be the fear that prompts Sunni Arab countries to intervene against the Assad government. That Iranian role and fear prompted Sunni Arab intervention in Iraq against the new Shia-dominated government, remember. The intervention in Iraq was indirect support of Sunni jihadis combined with refusal to lift a finger to help the new government, but it was intervention. So what form the intervention could take is unclear to me. But the ability of the Turks to directly intervene militarily opens new options to the Sunni world to battle Iran in Syria.