Sunday, August 21, 2011

What Survived the No-Fly Zone

In an interesting note on the Libyan War that had its origins in the call for NATO to establish a no-fly zone to protect Libyan civilians from Libyan government aircraft, this story states:

"Now the rebel offensive has put them on the defensive, and they are again bringing out their tanks and heavy artillery," said the official who could not be named under standing rules.

I was skeptical that we could blow up enough stuff from the air to defang the Libyans.

Also, for those inclined to credit the UN for authorizing a no-fly zone to protect civilians and reaching this point, the NATO war effort relied on violating the UN mandate:

"This is why we've been attacking them even when they are trying to beat back rebel advances," he said. "We're still protecting civilians because as soon as the rebels push pro-Gadhafi forces from a town, his troops will turn around and shell the place."

But analysts note that NATO's continued claims of simply protecting civilians strains credulity, saying the direct tactical air support to the ragtag rebel forces is enabling their battlefield victories.

"It was inevitable that the mission would spiral and the interpretation of U.N. resolutions would widen," said Barak Seener, a Middle East expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a British military think tank. "Thus, NATO has bombed government targets, paving the way for rebels to reach Zawiya."

"Protecting civilian populations now means getting rid of Gadhafi," Seener said.

If, as this seems, we are seeing the rebels race to final victory, it will be good to understand what happened so we don't draw the wrong lessons from incorrect assumptions.

It is also interesting that NATO is eager to win quickly to avoid a need to vote to extend the operation once the latest 3-month extension expires. Even on the cusp of victory, NATO's will could crack.

Victory is often a closer-run thing while it is being achieved than how it looks when the war is safely over.

Oh, and the UN is supposed to take up in September the question of NATO exceeding the mandate to protect civilians. If Khaddafi goes down, it really will have been a pretty darned close run thing.

UPDATE: At least President Obama didn't have an anti-war movement pestering him and accusing him of having blood on his hands. Membership in the same party has its privileges.