Saturday, August 20, 2011

The Last Battle for Brega?

The eastern rebels of Libya say they finally took Burayqah (Brega):

Libyan rebels battling Moammar Gadhafi's troops along the country's Mediterranean coast said they have captured all of the strategic eastern port city of Brega, which has repeatedly changed hands in the 6-month-old civil war.

Rebel military spokesman Col. Ahmed Bani said fighters gained control Saturday of the industrial section of Brega, after having captured its residential areas last week.

This is significant in finally pushing the rebel lines west to give them a shot at the loyalist Sirte region and then linking up with the Misrata pocket. Do that and the eastern rebels are in the game for the final assault on Tripoli.

Or, if the loyalists do hold out and turn this into a long (years) civil war, holding Burayqah with its oil infrastructure will be a key in making the eastern rump state a viable entity economically.

The article notes that there are actually two residential areas plus the industrial area making up Brega. Which goes a long way to explaining why the rebels seemingly kept taking the city while fighting continued.

Khaddafi's ability to counter-attack has appeared very weak the last couple months. They can still create blocking forces to throw in the way of rebels, but other than using artillery to counter-attack, don't seem to be able to retake lost ground.

If the loyalists have anything left in them in the east, now would be the time to bring it out of hiding.

The west is another place altogether. If the loyalists are pinning their hopes on a final stand in Tripoli, believing losing ground outside the capital is unimportant, I think they are mistaken. Get driven back to the capital and few loyalists will want to stand and die there in a losing battle where the only objective is to increase the cost to the rebels. Mercenaries sure won't sign up for that. The loyalists need to keep the fighting away from the capital to at least keep the illusion that they have a country they are defending and not just a city.