Saturday, August 20, 2011

Going Deep on 4th and 1?

Exploiting their momentum, rebels are attacking Tripoli already:

Libyan rebels said they launched an attack on Tripoli in coordination with NATO, and Associated Press reporters heard unusually heavy gunfire and explosions in the capital. The fighting erupted just hours after the opposition captured the key city of Zawiya nearby.

Gunbattles and mortar rounds were heard clearly at the hotel where foreign correspondents stay in the capital. Explosions also sounded in the same area as NATO aircraft carried out heavy bombing runs after nightfall.

"We planned this operation with NATO, our Arab associates and our rebel fighters in Tripoli with commanders in Benghazi," Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, the head of the rebel leadership council, told the Arab satellite channel Al-Jazeera. Benghazi, hundreds of miles east of Tripoli, is the rebels' de facto capital.

I'd guess this was more of an attempt to see if a quick advance could crack the morale of the loyalists rather than a big attempt to assault and seize the city from determined defenders.

What is really interesting is that the eastern rebels are apparently involved. Is this in cooperation with the western rebels or an effort by the eastern rebels to beat the western rebels into Tripoli?

Loyalist fortunes have sunk very rapidly the last couple weeks. They need something dramatic to reverse the new course of the war.

I never imagined back in March that NATO could continue the bombing this long. But they have. And the unexpected showing of the western rebels in shaking the foundation of the regime has been a surprise to me. That combination has made it more likely that the regime will crack before NATO's will to attack cracks.

Can this assault hold its ground and gain traction by sparking Tripoli residents to join the rebellion? Or will the loyalists keep their heads, destroy the assault forces, and dig in to resist the western rebels when they finally get close to the capital?

It will be interesting to get more details about where the attack force came from and what the command arrangements are. Again, is this a joint east-west rebel operation or an effort by the eastern rebels to steal a march on the western rebels who have been inexorably closing in on the regime in Tripoli?